14 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Viborg vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result

Energi Viborg Arena, Viborg
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Viborg 2-1 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Viborg, 22% draw, 28% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.00, 4.55 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Viborg at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Viborg96%Draw4%Aarhus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Sondergaardassist: Z. Zaletel
11'
31'
⚽F. Emmeryassist: M. Solbakken
⚽M. Sondergaardassist: O. Bundgaard
60'
🔁M. Sondergaardout: A. Beck
61'
🔁T. Jorgensenout: P. Keller
61'
🔁S. Jalalout: B. Brahimi
61'
61'
🔁T. Molgaardout: E. Kahl
61'
🔁M. Solbakkenout: M. Knudsen
72'
🔁M. Andersonout: T. Bech
72'
🔁J. Serraout: J. Bogere
76'
Magnus Knudsen
🔁C. Nouckout: F. Damkjer
84'
85'
🔁J. Andersenout: T. Kristjansson
🔁D. Hanzaout: A. Kleis-Kristoffersen
87'

Match stats — Viborg vs Aarhus

34%Possession66%
12Shots22
3On target7
3Corners10
0.84xG1.9

Goals against chances

Viborg2 from 0.84 xGmore than the chances were worth
Aarhus1 from 1.90 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Viborg 4-3-3
  • 20K. KiilerichG
  • 30S. KuzmicD
  • 4L. KirkegaardD
  • 5Z. ZaletelD
  • 23O. BundgaardD
  • 10T. JorgensenM
  • 13J. GronningM
  • 6M. SondergaardM
  • 29S. JalalF
  • 19D. HanzaF
  • 11C. NouckF
Substitutes
  • 1L. LundG
  • 24D. AnyembeD
  • 26H. BidstrupD
  • 8A. BeckM
  • 33F. Damkjer
  • 34P. KellerM
  • 17O. AddoF
  • 36A. Kleis-KristoffersenF
  • 21B. BrahimiM
Coach: Nickolai Lund
Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 14T. MolgaardD
  • 44M. CamaraD
  • 26J. AndersenD
  • 11G. LinksM
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
  • 10K. Arnstad
  • 39F. EmmeryM
  • 8S. JorgensenF
  • 23M. AndersonF
  • 13J. SerraF
Substitutes
  • 21M. HedenstadG
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 45C. StorchD
  • 33L. CalloD
  • 29R. CarstensenD
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 31T. BechF
  • 28J. BogereF
  • 20T. KristjanssonF
Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Form going into Viborg vs Aarhus

Viborg

  • D0-0away to Sonderjyske7 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Brondby2 August 2026
  • W1-0Odense24 July 2026

Aarhus

  • L0-4away to Sabah FA11 August 2026
  • W2-1Sabah FA5 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Lech Poznan29 July 2026
  • D1-1Brondby25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Viborg8422117+414
11Aarhus8044915-64

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Viborg vs Aarhus

  • 14 August 2026Viborg 2–1 AarhusSuperliga
  • 27 June 2026Aarhus 1–1 ViborgFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 May 2026Aarhus 6–2 ViborgSuperliga
  • 6 April 2026Viborg 1–2 AarhusSuperliga
  • 22 February 2026Aarhus 5–2 ViborgSuperliga
  • 14 September 2025Viborg 1–2 AarhusSuperliga

Leading scorers: Viborg and Aarhus

Viborg

  • A. Beck3 goals
  • M. Søndergaard2 goals2 assists
  • C. Nouck2 goals1 assists

Aarhus

  • J. Serra3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.