1 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Atletico Grau vs Universitario Primera División prediction & result

Ambrosio Maco Arroyo, Piura
Referee: Kevin Ortega
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Atletico Grau 1-3 Universitario.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Atletico Grau, 29% draw, 43% Universitario — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Universitario at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Grau0%Draw1%Universitario99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Anderson Santamaría
⚽Adrián Fernández
7'
18'
⚽Andy Poloassist: Jairo Concha
19'
Alex Valera
Ignacio Tapia
19'
🔁Mauro Da Luzout: Diego Barreto
60'
🔁Gabriel Alfaroout: Christian Vasquez
60'
61'
🔁Edison Floresout: Lisandro Alzugaray
🔁Eslyn Imanol Correa Vilelaout: Pablo Lavandeira
64'
🔁Paulo De La Cruzout: Freddy Oncoy
64'
69'
⚽Gianluca Lapadulaassist: César Inga
🔁Adrián Fernándezout: Yamir Ruidiaz Misitich
73'
74'
🔁Jairo Conchaout: Piero Quispe
74'
🔁César Ingaout: Jorge Gutiérrez
76'
⚽Lisandro Alzugaray
82'
🔁Alex Valeraout: Bryan Reyna
82'
🔁Horacio Calcaterraout: Jorge Murrugarra

Match stats — Atletico Grau vs Universitario

41%Possession59%
10Shots22
5On target6
4Corners5
1.41xG2.06

Goals against chances

Atletico Grau1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth
Universitario3 from 2.06 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Grau 5-3-2
  • 1P. ÁlvarezG
  • 4D. RodríguezD
  • 27R. TapiaD
  • 2L. AcevedoD
  • 3I. TapiaD
  • 25G. AlfaroD
  • 10P. de la CruzM
  • 21E. CorreaM
  • 5R. GuarderasM
  • 99A. FernándezF
  • 77M. da LuzF
Substitutes
  • 96L. BenítesM
  • 7D. BarretoM
  • 16J. AtaupillcoD
  • 33J. CalderónG
  • 15P. LavandeiraM
  • 13F. OncoyM
  • 24Yamir Ruidíaz MisitichF
  • 20A. VásquezM
  • 8C. VásquezD
Coach: G. Ameli
Universitario 3-1-4-2
  • 1D. RomeroG
  • 2C. FaraD
  • 3W. RiverosD
  • 4A. SantamaríaD
  • 10H. CalcaterraM
  • 24A. PoloM
  • 17J. ConchaM
  • 19É. FloresM
  • 33C. IngaM
  • 20A. ValeraF
  • 18G. LapadulaF
Substitutes
  • 77B. ReynaF
  • 39P. QuispeM
  • 70J. GutiérrezD
  • 8H. FértoliM
  • 29A. CorzoD
  • 30Lisandro Joel AlzugarayF
  • 11J. RiveraF
  • 25M. VargasG
  • 23J. MurrugarraM
Coach: F. Bustos

Form going into Atletico Grau vs Universitario

Atletico Grau

Primera División

  • L0-3away to Cienciano29 October 2026
  • D1-1ADT23 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Alianza Lima18 October 2026

Universitario

Primera División

  • W3-0Juan Pablo II College25 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Alianza Atletico18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Atletico Grau33107163241-937
2Universitario33171065939+2061

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Grau vs Universitario

  • 26 June 2026Universitario 1–1 Atletico GrauCopa De La Liga
  • 16 May 2026Universitario 0–1 Atletico GrauPrimera División
  • 1 August 2025Universitario 3–1 Atletico GrauPrimera División
  • 26 June 2025Atletico Grau 0–2 UniversitarioPrimera División
  • 21 July 2024Atletico Grau 1–1 UniversitarioPrimera División
  • 4 February 2024Universitario 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División

Leading scorers: Atletico Grau and Universitario

Atletico Grau

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Universitario

GoalsAssists

  • A. Valera182
  • G. Lapadula94

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Universitario won 3–1 at Atletico Grau. The model had made a win for Universitario its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Adrián Fernández 7' for Atletico Grau, Andy Polo 18' for Universitario, Gianluca Lapadula 69' for Universitario, Lisandro Alzugaray 76' for Universitario. On expected goals it finished 1.41–2.06.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universitario a 87.5% chance to finish in the top two: 95.3% after a win, 85.8% after a draw, 75.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.3%, 7.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atletico Grau v Universitario has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 28% / 29% / 43%: the biggest move is Atletico Grau's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Atletico Grau win28%▼ −7
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Universitario win43%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.