Cusco vs Sport Boys Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Cusco 0-1 Sport Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Cusco, 28% draw, 24% Sport Boys — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cusco at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cusco vs Sport Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28P. DíazG
- 21J. ZevallosD
- 6Á. AmpueroD
- 2C. GamarraD
- 3R. LagosD
- 55J. MontañoM
- 22L. ColittoM
- 88D. SotoM
- 10I. ColmanM
- 7J. ManzanedaM
- 9F. CallejoF
- 13A. VidalG
- 77J. HerreraM
- 14C. DiezM
- 37G. ChoiD
- 24M. RuidíasD
- 26N. SilvaF
- 99Miguel SilveiraM
- 11J. TévezF
- 16O. ValenzuelaM
- 22D. MeliánG
- 17E. SabaD
- 3C. ZambranoD
- 55G. DulantoD
- 13M. LlontopD
- 11L. UrrutiM
- 5F. IllanesM
- 24O. MoraM
- 99C. CuevaM
- 77Y. CeliF
- 32P. ErustesF
- 4R. AlfaniD
- 14R. DíazF
- 21A. HuamánM
- 30P. LizaF
- 29N. LoyolaD
- 61J. NolascoG
- 26H. RiojasD
- 10J. AlarcónM
- 47M. TraucoD
Form going into Cusco vs Sport Boys
Cusco
Primera División
- W1-0away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas29 October 2026
- W3-1Sporting Cristal24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo16 October 2026
Sport Boys
Primera División
- W4-2FC Cajamarca25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Juan Pablo II College17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cusco | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 51 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cusco vs Sport Boys
- 17 May 2026Sport Boys 1–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 7 November 2025Cusco 3–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 6 July 2025Sport Boys 1–2 CuscoPrimera División
- 5 August 2024Cusco 3–1 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 24 February 2024Sport Boys 3–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 3 October 2023Sport Boys 2–1 CuscoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Cusco and Sport Boys
Cusco
GoalsAssists
- F. Callejo182
Sport Boys
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sport Boys won 1–0 at Cusco. The model had leaned towards a win for Cusco at 48% and given a win for Sport Boys 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Jostin Alarcon 75' for Sport Boys. Sent off: Ricardo Lagos (Cusco) 40', Yuriel Celi (Sport Boys) 40'. On expected goals it finished 1.60–0.36.
How the call on Cusco v Sport Boys has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Cusco's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Cusco win48%▲ +3
- Draw28%=
- Sport Boys win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.