21 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Vicenza Virtus vs Catanzaro Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Vicenza Virtus 3-2 Catanzaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Vicenza Virtus, 23% draw, 31% Catanzaro — fair odds of 2.17, 4.35 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vicenza Virtus at 46% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vicenza Virtus95%Draw5%Catanzaro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽M. D'Alessandroassist: G. Alesi
⚽G. Cuomoassist: F. Costa
39'
42'
Pietro Iemmello
Filippo Alessio
44'
51'
⚽B. Verrengiaassist: Matias Antonini
53'
Jacopo Petriccione
Filippo Costa
55'
58'
🔁M. D'Alessandroout: M. Dorval
🔁M. Carraroout: L. Zonta
62'
🔁L. Caferriout: A. Pietrelli
62'
🔁F. Alessioout: N. Rauti
71'
73'
🔁P. Iemmelloout: F. Tchaouna
🔁F. Costaout: T. Corazza
76'
🔁G. Monciniout: C. Morra
76'
⚽A. Pietrelliassist: T. Corazza
80'
82'
🔁N. Mostiout: S. Giovane
82'
🔁G. Alesiout: F. Di Francesco
82'
🔁N. Koffiout: G. Arditi
83'
Marco Ruggero
⚽C. Morraassist: N. Rauti
89'

Match stats — Vicenza Virtus vs Catanzaro

47%Possession53%
23Shots13
9On target6
10Corners6
1.77xG1.74

Goals against chances

Vicenza Virtus3 from 1.77 xGmore than the chances were worth
Catanzaro2 from 1.74 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vicenza Virtus 3-5-2
  • 16R. GagnoG
  • 14G. CuomoD
  • 6M. LeverbeD
  • 5R. MarchizzaD
  • 28L. CaferriM
  • 10M. ValotiM
  • 4M. CarraroM
  • 26G. PellizzariM
  • 32F. CostaM
  • 11G. MonciniF
  • 24F. AlessioF
Substitutes
  • 12S. MassoloG
  • 1M. BassoG
  • 21T. CorazzaD
  • 27T. SandonD
  • 33M. VescoviD
  • 23N. BrighentiD
  • 29L. ZontaM
  • 99A. PietrelliM
  • 44R. TalaricoM
Coach: Fabio Gallo
Catanzaro 3-3-3-1
  • 22M. PigliacelliG
  • 24M. RuggeroD
  • 4Matias AntoniniD
  • 26B. VerrengiaD
  • 98N. MostiM
  • 10J. PetriccioneM
  • 30G. AlesiM
  • 27A. CandelaF
  • 9P. IemmelloM
  • 77M. D'AlessandroF
  • 19N. KoffiF
Substitutes
  • 1C. MariettaG
  • 6N. Postiglione
  • 5E. BashiD
  • 93M. DorvalD
  • 87G. EstevesD
  • 14S. GiovaneM
  • 80F. ReitaM
  • 18A. GarnicaF
  • 28F. Tchaouna
Coach: Giorgio Gorgone

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Vicenza Virtus412168-25
17Catanzaro410347-33

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Catanzaro

  • 21 August 2026Vicenza Virtus 3–2 CatanzaroSerie B

Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Catanzaro

Vicenza Virtus

  • T. Corazza1 goals1 assists

Catanzaro

  • P. Iemmello2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.