Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91 Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Bourg-en-bresse 01 0-1 Fleury 91.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Bourg-en-bresse 01, 26% draw, 50% Fleury 91 — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fleury 91 at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1L. Montfort
- 4A. Dihad
- 5Q. Lacour
- 29N. Dede-Lhomme
- 25A. Sabri
- 6R. Souici
- 22T. Gomes
- 18Y. Kanoute
- 14A. Krizoua
- 8T. Frayssinous
- 28A. Gharbi
- 40P. Popp
- 35N. Kintuntu
- 7O. Muepu
- 11Y. Abraou
- 19M. Tyburn
- 34T. Adoumbou
- 33J. Domingos
- 40G. Alette
- 27H. Gassama
- 2F. Colombo
- 26H. Karamoko
- 18C. Cisse
- 20C. Khetir
- 8R. Leleve
- 10Y. Le Mehaute
- 19K. Farade
- 7Y. Verdier
- 17V. Lavigne
- 1A. Petit
- 25M. Jean-Pierre
- 6G. Lefebvre
- 12T. Thomas
- 28N. Homssa
- 11J. Rivas
- 9S. Anne
Form going into Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91
Bourg-en-bresse 01
Ligue 3
- L0-2away to Rouen3 October 2026
- D1-1Concarneau26 September 2026
Fleury 91
Ligue 3
- W3-2Caen3 October 2026
- L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 6 |
| 12 | Fleury 91 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91
- 27 March 2026Fleury 91 3–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
- 21 October 2025Bourg-en-bresse 01 2–2 Fleury 91Ligue 3
- 3 February 2024Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–4 Fleury 91National 2 - Group D
- 9 September 2023Fleury 91 0–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01National 2 - Group D
The result against the call
Fleury 91 won 1–0 at Bourg-en-bresse 01. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Fleury 91 at 50%. The goal: S. Anne 90+1' for Fleury 91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bourg-en-bresse 01 a 87.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 81.8% after a win, 88.3% after a draw, 89.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.9%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Fleury 91 the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 25.0% going in: 27.9% after a win, 22.4% after a draw, 17.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.9%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bourg-en-bresse 01 v Fleury 91 has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 24% / 26% / 50%: the biggest move is Fleury 91's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 win24%▼ −3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Fleury 91 win50%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.