17 October 2026, 12:45 UTC

Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91 Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Marcel-Verchere, Bourg-en-Bresse
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Bourg-en-bresse 01 0-1 Fleury 91.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Bourg-en-bresse 01, 26% draw, 50% Fleury 91 — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fleury 91 at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bourg-en-bresse 013%Draw92%Fleury 915%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
C. Cisse
31'
Y. Verdier
32'
C. Khetir
60'
🔁V. Lavigneout: N. Homssa
60'
🔁C. Cisseout: M. Jean-Pierre
🔁A. Krizouaout: Y. Abraou
70'
72'
R. Leleve
78'
🔁Y. Le Mehauteout: T. Thomas
78'
🔁K. Faradeout: S. Anne
78'
🔁R. Leleveout: J. Rivas
🔁A. Sabriout: T. Adoumbou
79'
Y. Kanoute
87'
90+1'
⚽S. Anneassist: Y. Verdier
Q. Lacour
90+4'

Line-ups

Bourg-en-bresse 01
  • 1L. Montfort
  • 4A. Dihad
  • 5Q. Lacour
  • 29N. Dede-Lhomme
  • 25A. Sabri
  • 6R. Souici
  • 22T. Gomes
  • 18Y. Kanoute
  • 14A. Krizoua
  • 8T. Frayssinous
  • 28A. Gharbi
Substitutes
  • 40P. Popp
  • 35N. Kintuntu
  • 7O. Muepu
  • 11Y. Abraou
  • 19M. Tyburn
  • 34T. Adoumbou
  • 33J. Domingos
Coach: Nicolas Rabuel
Fleury 91
  • 40G. Alette
  • 27H. Gassama
  • 2F. Colombo
  • 26H. Karamoko
  • 18C. Cisse
  • 20C. Khetir
  • 8R. Leleve
  • 10Y. Le Mehaute
  • 19K. Farade
  • 7Y. Verdier
  • 17V. Lavigne
Substitutes
  • 1A. Petit
  • 25M. Jean-Pierre
  • 6G. Lefebvre
  • 12T. Thomas
  • 28N. Homssa
  • 11J. Rivas
  • 9S. Anne
Coach: Maxime D'Ornano

Form going into Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91

Bourg-en-bresse 01

Ligue 3

  • L0-2away to Rouen3 October 2026
  • D1-1Concarneau26 September 2026

Fleury 91

Ligue 3

  • W3-2Caen3 October 2026
  • L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Bourg-en-bresse 0112138619-136
12Fleury 91124441715+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91

  • 27 March 2026Fleury 91 3–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
  • 21 October 2025Bourg-en-bresse 01 2–2 Fleury 91Ligue 3
  • 3 February 2024Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–4 Fleury 91National 2 - Group D
  • 9 September 2023Fleury 91 0–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01National 2 - Group D

The result against the call

Fleury 91 won 1–0 at Bourg-en-bresse 01. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Fleury 91 at 50%. The goal: S. Anne 90+1' for Fleury 91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bourg-en-bresse 01 a 87.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 81.8% after a win, 88.3% after a draw, 89.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.9%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

For Fleury 91 the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 25.0% going in: 27.9% after a win, 22.4% after a draw, 17.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.9%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bourg-en-bresse 01 v Fleury 91 has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 24% / 26% / 50%: the biggest move is Fleury 91's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Bourg-en-bresse 01 win24%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Fleury 91 win50%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.