Rayo Vallecano
vs
Espanyol
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Espanyol.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Rayo Vallecano, 28% draw, 30% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.71, Espanyol 1.29.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rayo Vallecano at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Line-ups
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 6P. CissM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
- 37Rayane BelidF
- 20I. BalliuD
- 36G. BouareM
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 30Adrián MolinaG
- 21Fran PérezF
- 31M. RomanM
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 5C. RiedelD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 20Gabriel MoscardoM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 3Q. HartmanM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 24T. DolanF
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 10Pol LozanoM
- 32J. A. LopezD
- 11Pere MillaM
- 14Unai NúñezD
Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
- L1-4away to Real Madrid12 September 2026
- W3-2Racing Santander5 September 2026
- L2-5away to Barcelona31 August 2026
- D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
Espanyol
- W2-0away to Osasuna12 September 2026
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | Espanyol | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
- 23 April 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 7 December 2025Espanyol 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 4 April 2025Rayo Vallecano 0–4 EspanyolLa Liga
- 31 August 2024Espanyol 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 21 May 2023Rayo Vallecano 1–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 19 August 2022Espanyol 0–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
- Sergio Camello6 goals1 assists
- Álvaro García2 goals2 assists
Espanyol
- Roberto Fernández6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.71 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.29 for Espanyol; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Álvaro García 3' (Rayo Vallecano), Adrià Pedrosa 26' (Rayo Vallecano), Roberto Fernández Jaén 54' (Espanyol).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rayo Vallecano the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano against 1.29 for Espanyol. Rayo Vallecano's attack/defence rating is 1.27/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.83 for Espanyol.