Walsall
vs
Northampton
League Two prediction
Our model says: Walsall 1–0 Northampton
The model makes it 42% Walsall, 33% draw, 25% Northampton — fair odds of 2.38, 3.03 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Walsall 1.14, Northampton 0.75.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Walsall's rating is built from 59 League Two matches and Northampton's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Walsall are 6th on 22 points from 13 games; Northampton are 19th on 15 points from 14 games — League Two.
- Walsall have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Colchester.
- Northampton are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Salford City.
- Last 6 meetings: Northampton 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 January 2026, ended Northampton 4–2 Walsall.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Walsall vs Northampton
Has the model earned this number?
Walsall at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Walsall vs Northampton
Walsall
League Two
- W3-1away to Colchester31 October 2026
- L2-4Salford City26 October 2026
- W3-0Oldham20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Swindon Town17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026
Northampton
League Two
- D1-1away to Salford City14 November 2026
- L0-1Oldham3 November 2026
- D1-1away to Accrington Stanley31 October 2026
- W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
- L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026
What these results say
- Walsall scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Walsall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Walsall.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
- Northampton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Northampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 22 |
| 19 | Northampton | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Walsall
Chance to finish in the top three · 30% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Walsall vs Northampton
- 14 January 2026Northampton 4–2 WalsallEFL Trophy
- 7 October 2025Walsall 0–1 NorthamptonEFL Trophy
- 4 February 2023Northampton 0–0 WalsallLeague Two
- 4 October 2022Walsall 1–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 1 March 2022Northampton 1–1 WalsallLeague Two
- 5 February 2022Walsall 0–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
Leading scorers: Walsall and Northampton
Walsall
GoalsAssists
- A. Pressley90
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Walsall a 7.8% chance of the title and Northampton 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Walsall the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Walsall against 0.75 for Northampton. Walsall's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/1.46 for Northampton.
How the model reaches 42% for Walsall to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Walsall to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Walsall's ratings add 5 points and Northampton's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level37%−4
- Walsall's ratings42%+5
- Northampton's ratings42%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Walsall at home · Northampton away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Walsall 13, Northampton 14.
Walsall score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Northampton have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Walsall
- at Newport County1 Dec · League Twowin 37%
- at Rotherham12 Dec · League Twowin 45%
Northampton
- vs Fleetwood Town1 Dec · League Twowin 36%
- at Barnet12 Dec · League Twowin 23%
- vs Exeter City19 Dec · League Twowin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.