Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham League Two prediction

The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury

Our model says: Shrewsbury 2–1 Cheltenham

The model makes it 41% Shrewsbury, 26% draw, 33% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Shrewsbury 1.67, Cheltenham 1.46.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Shrewsbury's rating is built from 61 League Two matches and Cheltenham's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Shrewsbury are 10th on 21 points from 15 games; Cheltenham are 9th on 21 points from 15 games — League Two.
  • Shrewsbury have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Oldham.
  • Cheltenham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Exeter City.
  • Last 6 meetings: Cheltenham 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Shrewsbury 0–2 Cheltenham.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham

63%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Shrewsbury win Draw Cheltenham win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 2–26%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Shrewsbury first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Shrewsbury at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham

Shrewsbury

League Two

  • W2-1Oldham14 November 2026
  • L1-2Gillingham31 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Rotherham24 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Crawley Town20 October 2026
  • W1-0Bristol Rovers17 October 2026

Cheltenham

League Two

  • L0-1away to Exeter City14 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Tranmere31 October 2026
  • W1-0Newport County24 October 2026
  • W4-2Fleetwood Town20 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Oldham17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Shrewsbury scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Shrewsbury conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Shrewsbury had three goals or more.
  • Cheltenham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cheltenham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Shrewsbury156361923-421
9Cheltenham156362326-321

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Shrewsbury

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 7% today

Win 5%
Draw 8%
Defeat 10%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham

  • 14 March 2026Shrewsbury 0–2 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 26 December 2025Cheltenham 3–1 ShrewsburyLeague Two
  • 26 December 2023Cheltenham 2–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
  • 5 August 2023Shrewsbury 1–0 CheltenhamLeague One
  • 29 December 2022Shrewsbury 0–1 CheltenhamLeague One
  • 1 October 2022Cheltenham 2–0 ShrewsburyLeague One

Leading scorers: Shrewsbury and Cheltenham

Shrewsbury

GoalsAssists

  • J. Davison51

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cheltenham (ninth, with Shrewsbury tenth), while our numbers lean to Shrewsbury. Shrewsbury rate 0.44 in attack and 2.31 in defence, Cheltenham 0.52 and 2.59 (lower is better in defence), so Shrewsbury have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shrewsbury a 0% chance of the title and Cheltenham 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Shrewsbury Cheltenham
0.44 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.52
2.31 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.59
1.67 Model expected goals (this match) 1.46

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Shrewsbury the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Shrewsbury against 1.46 for Cheltenham. Shrewsbury's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.59 for Cheltenham.

Shrewsbury carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.06 for Cheltenham. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for Shrewsbury to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Shrewsbury to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Shrewsbury's ratings take away 1 point and Cheltenham's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%+1
  4. Shrewsbury's ratings41%−1
  5. Cheltenham's ratings41%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ShrewsburyCheltenham
15Matches15
6W 3D 6LRecord6W 3D 6L
19 1.3 per gameGoals scored23 1.5 per game
23 1.5 per gameGoals conceded26 1.7 per game
3 of 15Clean sheets1 of 15
4 of 15Failed to score3 of 15
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 3
40 2.7 per gameYellow cards38 2.5 per game
3Red cards2
3-4-1-2 15×Usual shape4-1-4-1 7×

Shrewsbury at home · Cheltenham away

8Played8
4W 1D 3LRecord1W 2D 5L
10–9Goals for – against9–16
3 of 8Clean sheets0 of 8

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Shrewsbury 15, Cheltenham 15.

Shrewsbury scored 133344
Cheltenham conceded 352647
Cheltenham scored 345334
Shrewsbury conceded 434029

Cheltenham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Shrewsbury have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Shrewsbury

  • at York1 Dec · League Twowin 23%
  • vs Port Vale12 Dec · League Twowin 35%
  • at Walsall19 Dec · League Twowin 22%
  • vs Swindon Town26 Dec · League Twowin 38%

Cheltenham

  • vs Rochdale1 Dec · League Twowin 50%
  • vs Crewe12 Dec · League Twowin 39%
  • at Gillingham19 Dec · League Twowin 33%
  • vs Port Vale26 Dec · League Twowin 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.