Walsall vs Oldham League Two prediction & result
Final score: Walsall 3-0 Oldham.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Walsall, 28% draw, 30% Oldham — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Walsall at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Walsall vs Oldham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. WardG
- 22E. AhuiD
- 25D. SkuraD
- 4J. ConnollyD
- 29J. FurlongD
- 8C. CrewM
- 15Isaac MooreM
- 10L. SimperM
- 7Taione Richard Evumena SodjeM
- 17Courtney ClarkeM
- 19A. PressleyF
- 37A. AdomahF
- 9A. DallasF
- 3M. HancockD
- 26R. LeakD
- 11R. SmithM
- 6S. SpranglerM
- 31Tom WoosterG
- 1M. HudsonG
- 16W. SuttonD
- 5D. DanielsD
- 6E. MontheD
- 3J. RobsonD
- 8O. NorburnM
- 7K. Appiah-ForsonM
- 15K. DrummondM
- 4T. PettM
- 17F. FawunmiM
- 10C. KavanaghF
- 9M. Fondop-TalumF
- 27O. HammondM
- 22Wilson WilsonG
- 24L. TempleD
- 2G. Scott-MorrissD
- 26Kai PayneM
- 30Thomas Daniel HillM
Form going into Walsall vs Oldham
Walsall
League Two
- D1-1away to Swindon Town17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026
Oldham
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Cheltenham17 October 2026
- D0-0Accrington Stanley10 October 2026
- L1-4Salford City26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 22 |
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Walsall vs Oldham
- 29 December 2025Walsall 1–2 OldhamLeague Two
- 10 December 2025Oldham 0–1 WalsallLeague Two
- 15 March 2022Walsall 2–1 OldhamLeague Two
- 19 October 2021Oldham 1–3 WalsallLeague Two
- 16 January 2021Walsall 1–1 OldhamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Walsall and Oldham
Walsall
GoalsAssists
- A. Pressley90
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Walsall beat Oldham 3–0. The model had made a win for Walsall its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Taione Richard Evumena Sodje 21' for Walsall, Aaron Pressley 26' for Walsall, Aaron Pressley (penalty) 58' for Walsall. Sent off: Elicha Ahui (Walsall) 61'. On expected goals it finished 2.29–1.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Walsall a 18.4% chance to finish in the top three: 22.0% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 13.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.0%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
For Oldham the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 7.6% going in: 9.9% after a win, 7.2% after a draw, 5.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.2%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Walsall v Oldham has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Walsall's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Walsall win42%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Oldham win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.