20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

York vs Accrington Stanley League Two prediction & result

York Community Stadium, York
Full time1 – 1

Final score: York 1-1 Accrington Stanley.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% York, 25% draw, 24% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

York at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

York0%Draw6%Accrington Stanley94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Donald Love
Jack Hunt
55'
61'
⚽Josh Woodsassist: Stefan Mols
🔁Alex Newbyout: Frankie Maguire
63'
🔁Jeff Kingout: Joseph Rabole Felix
63'
🔁Jack Huntout: Ryan Fallowfield
63'
🔁Ollie Banksout: Hiram Boateng
73'
🔁Alex Huntout: Arthur Read
73'
80'
🔁Charlie Warrenout: Conor Grant
Arthur Read
81'
82'
Aidan borland
87'
Stefan Mols
88'
🔁Stefan Molsout: Charlie·Brown
⚽Ollie Pearceassist: Arthur Read
90'

Match stats — York vs Accrington Stanley

61%Possession39%
16Shots12
6On target4
7Corners6
1.87xG1.05

Goals against chances

York1 from 1.87 xGless than the chances were worth
Accrington Stanley1 from 1.05 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

York 3-4-2-1
  • 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
  • 32J. HuntD
  • 5Z. JohnsonD
  • 3M. KitchingD
  • 15J. KingM
  • 8A. HuntM
  • 28O. BanksM
  • 12H. BoyesM
  • 7J. GreyM
  • 30A. NewbyM
  • 10O. PearceF
Substitutes
  • 21H. BoatengM
  • 2R. FallowfieldD
  • 23J. FelixD
  • 11F. MaguireM
  • 16A. ReadM
  • 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
  • 24M. WilliamsD
Coach: S. Lindsey
Accrington Stanley 3-4-1-2
  • 1L. MouldenG
  • 2D. LoveD
  • 17D. MatthewsD
  • 22J. AndersonD
  • 38C. O'BrienM
  • 14Stefan MolsM
  • 16Aidan BorlandM
  • 33D. TutondaM
  • 23T. WaltonM
  • 30C. WarrenF
  • 39J. WoodsF
Substitutes
  • 4T. MooreD
  • 8C. GrantM
  • 20C. BrownF
  • 3Oliver SmithD
  • 25J. SmithD
  • 21J. RogersonG
Coach: J. Doolan

Form going into York vs Accrington Stanley

York

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Newport County17 October 2026
  • D1-1Northampton10 October 2026
  • W3-0Gillingham26 September 2026

Accrington Stanley

League Two

  • W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4York156542521+423
13Accrington Stanley154742521+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: York vs Accrington Stanley

  • 29 July 2023Accrington Stanley 2–0 YorkFriendlies Clubs
  • 23 April 2016Accrington Stanley 3–0 YorkLeague Two
  • 28 November 2015York 1–5 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 7 November 2015Accrington Stanley 3–2 YorkFA Cup
  • 21 March 2015Accrington Stanley 2–2 YorkLeague Two

Leading scorers: York and Accrington Stanley

York

GoalsAssists

  • O. Pearce74
  • A. Newby61

Accrington Stanley

GoalsAssists

  • J. Woods71
  • C. Caton50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

York and Accrington Stanley drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for York at 51% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Josh Woods 61' for Accrington Stanley, Ollie Pearce 90' for York. On expected goals it finished 1.87–1.05.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave York a 35.8% chance to finish in the top three: 38.6% after a win, 32.7% after a draw, 30.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.7%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

For Accrington Stanley the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.5% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.7%.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.