20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town League One prediction & result

The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
Full time0 – 3

Final score: AFC Wimbledon 0-3 Mansfield Town.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% AFC Wimbledon, 29% draw, 43% Mansfield Town — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mansfield Town at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AFC Wimbledon0%Draw1%Mansfield Town99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Michael Smithassist: Stephen McLaughlin
27'
⚽Michael Smithassist: Stephen McLaughlin
42'
Adedeji Oshilaja
Andy Yiadom
45+1'
🔁Andy Yiadomout: Harry Cornick
45'
45'
🔁George Abbottout: Rhys Oates
🔁Callum Maycockout: James Tilley
45'
61'
🔁Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welshout: Kyle Knoyle
Ryan Johnson
69'
73'
⚽Jonathan Russellassist: Michael Smith
74'
🔁Stephen McLaughlinout: Frazer Blake-Tracy
🔁Freddie Simmondsout: Ollie Harrison
74'
🔁Zack Nelsonout: Steven Sessegnon
81'
81'
🔁Liam Thompsonout: Regan·Hendry
82'
🔁Louis Reedout: George Maris

Match stats — AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town

53%Possession47%
13Shots13
2On target6
9Corners6
0.48xG1.99

Goals against chances

AFC Wimbledon0 from 0.48 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mansfield Town3 from 1.99 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AFC Wimbledon 5-4-1
  • 39J. BursikG
  • 17A. YiadomD
  • 15F. SimmondsD
  • 6R. JohnsonD
  • 3S. SeddonD
  • 29A. SasuD
  • 8C. MaycockM
  • 10Z. NelsonM
  • 12A. SmithM
  • 21M. HippolyteM
  • 9J. StockleyF
Substitutes
  • 23H. CornickF
  • 5O. HarrisonM
  • 20J. McDonnellG
  • 2S. SessegnonD
  • 7J. TilleyF
  • 25S. GomaD
  • 22R. HoranD
Coach: J. Jackson
Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. RobertsG
  • 9J. BoweryD
  • 23A. OshilajaD
  • 5R. SweeneyD
  • 25L. ReedM
  • 22N. Moriah-WelshM
  • 33G. AbbottM
  • 16L. ThompsonM
  • 3S. McLaughlinM
  • 14M. SmithF
  • 13J. RussellF
Substitutes
  • 19T. RobertsF
  • 18R. OatesF
  • 10G. MarisM
  • 2K. KnoyleD
  • 24R. HendryM
  • 8L. BoltonD
  • 20F. Blake-TracyD
Coach: N. Clough

Form going into AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town

AFC Wimbledon

League One

  • L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026

Mansfield Town

League One

  • D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17AFC Wimbledon144461021-1116
12Mansfield Town135442018+219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town

  • 28 February 2026Mansfield Town 2–2 AFC WimbledonLeague One
  • 13 December 2025AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Mansfield TownLeague One
  • 27 January 2024AFC Wimbledon 2–1 Mansfield TownLeague Two
  • 7 October 2023Mansfield Town 0–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
  • 4 March 2023AFC Wimbledon 1–3 Mansfield TownLeague Two

Leading scorers: AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town

AFC Wimbledon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Stockley61

Mansfield Town

GoalsAssists

  • M. Smith62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mansfield Town won 3–0 at AFC Wimbledon. The model had made a win for Mansfield Town its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Michael Smith 22' for Mansfield Town, Michael Smith 27' for Mansfield Town, Jonathan Russell 73' for Mansfield Town. On expected goals it finished 0.48–1.99.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AFC Wimbledon a 47.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 40.9% after a win, 47.6% after a draw, 50.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.9%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 32% / 31% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 28% / 29% / 43%: the biggest move is Mansfield Town's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. AFC Wimbledon win28%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Mansfield Town win43%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.