20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Northampton vs Tranmere League Two prediction & result

Sixfields Stadium, Northampton
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Northampton 0-1 Tranmere.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Northampton, 26% draw, 26% Tranmere — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Northampton at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Northampton0%Draw5%Tranmere95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
⚽B. Faulknerassist: Will Vaulks
42'
Ryan Watson
🔁Connor Lemonheigh-Evansout: Elliott List
70'
🔁M. Warhurstout: Nathaniel Opoku
70'
🔁josh powellout: James Maxwell
70'
🔁Janoi Donacienout: Sam Hoskins
76'
90+1'
Lee O'Connor

Match stats — Northampton vs Tranmere

64%Possession36%
21Shots8
4On target1
9Corners6
1.37xG0.84

Goals against chances

Northampton0 from 1.37 xGless than the chances were worth
Tranmere1 from 0.84 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Northampton 4-4-2
  • 1Z. JeacockG
  • 44J. DonacienD
  • 6E. MooreD
  • 5J. GuthrieD
  • 22Joshua Alan PowellD
  • 16J. WormleightonM
  • 24C. Lemonheigh-EvansM
  • 8L. EvansM
  • 4J. O'Brien-WhitmarshM
  • 19O. DaleF
  • 9Matthew WarhurstF
Substitutes
  • 35M. DycheD
  • 14T. FornahM
  • 7S. HoskinsF
  • 10E. ListF
  • 3J. MaxwellD
  • 31J. DadgeG
  • 17N. OpokuF
Coach: C. Hogg
Tranmere 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. McGeeG
  • 22L. O'ConnorD
  • 16B. FaulknerD
  • 30G. NevettD
  • 3J. SlaterD
  • 6W. VaulksM
  • 44R. WatsonM
  • 29D. JonesM
  • 10T. InceM
  • 7Charlie Jay WhitakerM
  • 9J. IronsideF
Substitutes
  • 4J. TurnbullD
  • 20Charlie VeeversM
  • 24David KamaraF
  • 5N. SmithD
  • 13C. Boyce-ClarkeG
  • 14O. ScottD
  • 11T. ConlonM
Coach: D. Clarke

Form going into Northampton vs Tranmere

Northampton

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Grimsby17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to York10 October 2026

Tranmere

League Two

  • L1-2Barnet17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Northampton143651011-115
15Tranmere154741918+119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Northampton vs Tranmere

  • 8 May 2023Tranmere 0–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 3 December 2022Northampton 0–0 TranmereLeague Two
  • 5 March 2022Northampton 3–2 TranmereLeague Two
  • 23 October 2021Tranmere 0–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 5 February 2019Tranmere 1–2 NorthamptonLeague Two

Leading scorers: Northampton and Tranmere

Northampton

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Tranmere

GoalsAssists

  • D. Jones50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tranmere won 1–0 at Northampton. The model had leaned towards a win for Northampton at 48% and given a win for Tranmere 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: B. Faulkner 37' for Tranmere. On expected goals it finished 1.37–0.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Northampton a 6.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 5.1% after a win, 7.1% after a draw, 8.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.6%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For Tranmere the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 28.6% going in: 21.3% after a win, 28.6% after a draw, 31.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 7.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Northampton v Tranmere has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Northampton's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Northampton win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Tranmere win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.