20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Rochdale vs Grimsby League Two prediction & result

Spotland Stadium, Rochdale
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Rochdale 2-2 Grimsby.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Rochdale, 27% draw, 38% Grimsby — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Grimsby at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rochdale4%Draw92%Grimsby4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Charles Vernam
Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko
20'
⚽Dajaune Brownassist: Glenn Middleton
38'
42'
Maldini Kacurri
🔁Olutobi Adebayo-Rowlingout: K. Taylor
45'
Edward Francis
49'
50'
Jamie Walker
57'
⚽Kieran Green
🔁Babajide Ezekiel Adeekoout: sam beckwith
65'
Cian Hayes
67'
Ian Watson
68'
72'
⚽Jamie Walker
🔁Cian Hayesout: Luke Hannant
75'
76'
🔁Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzorout: Sonny Finch
76'
🔁Jamie Walkerout: Cian Doyle
🔁K. Taylorout: Ian Henderson
81'
⚽Ian Henderson
88'
89'
🔁Iwan Morganout: Finn Cartwright

Match stats — Rochdale vs Grimsby

53%Possession47%
16Shots24
6On target7
7Corners10
2.1xG2.39

Goals against chances

Rochdale2 from 2.10 xGabout what the chances were worth
Grimsby2 from 2.39 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rochdale 4-2-3-1
  • 20Sam William John WallerG
  • 13O. Adebayo-RowlingD
  • 44A. FlintD
  • 3Kaiden WilsonD
  • 2C. TaskerD
  • 8H. GilmourM
  • 17B. AdeekoM
  • 7C. HayesM
  • 14E. FrancisM
  • 45G. MiddletonM
  • 39D. BrownF
Substitutes
  • 11Z. Silcott-DuberryF
  • 33S. BeckwithD
  • 19L. HannantM
  • 40I. HendersonF
  • 26S. SherringD
  • 12J. SpavenG
  • 21Kane TaylorM
Coach: Ian Watson
Grimsby 3-1-4-2
  • 31C. PymG
  • 5H. RodgersD
  • 2M. KacurriD
  • 12J. FoulkesD
  • 15G. TuriM
  • 14J. AmaluzorM
  • 4K. GreenM
  • 7J. WalkerM
  • 30C. VernamM
  • 39A. CookF
  • 9Iwan MorganF
Substitutes
  • 1H. CartwrightG
  • 8Cian DoyleM
  • 10S. FinchF
  • 11Ryley ReynoldsM
  • 50Malaki Jahiem Golding
  • 28F. CartwrightM
  • 23H. BrownM
Coach: D. Artell

Form going into Rochdale vs Grimsby

Rochdale

League Two

  • L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026

Grimsby

League Two

  • L0-2Northampton17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Rochdale154381727-1015
3Grimsby156542819+923

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rochdale vs Grimsby

  • 19 July 2025Rochdale 2–0 GrimsbyFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 March 2023Grimsby 1–0 RochdaleLeague Two
  • 13 August 2022Rochdale 0–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 14 August 2018Grimsby 0–2 RochdaleLeague Cup

The result against the call

Rochdale and Grimsby drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Grimsby at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dajaune Brown 38' for Rochdale, Kieran Green 57' for Grimsby, Jamie Walker 72' for Grimsby, Ian Henderson 88' for Rochdale. On expected goals it finished 2.10–2.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rochdale a 8.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.4% after a win, 7.9% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.9%.

For Grimsby the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 9.7% going in: 12.1% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.6%.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rochdale v Grimsby has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Rochdale's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Rochdale win35%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Grimsby win38%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.