Watford vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Watford 1-2 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Watford, 29% draw, 31% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Watford at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Watford vs Stoke City
Line-ups
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 4K. KebenD
- 6M. PollockD
- 3S. CoulibalyD
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 39E. KayembeM
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 7O. MaammaM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 45S. MavididiM
- 20M. DoumbiaF
- 18M. AntonioF
- 26D. BachmannG
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 21Amin NabizadaF
- 23O. TraoréD
- 11R. VataF
- 24S. WalkerG
- 56Albert EamesD
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 16B. WilmotD
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 13J. DevennyM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 17E. BocatM
- 11L. CisséF
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 23B. GibsonD
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 15G. HirstF
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 4B. PearsonM
- 19T. RigoM
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 21L. BombinoD
- 43F. AndersonD
Form going into Watford vs Stoke City
Watford
- W2-1Preston8 September 2026
- L0-1away to West Brom5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Swansea1 September 2026
- D1-1West Ham29 August 2026
Stoke City
- D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
- W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
- W1-0Norwich1 September 2026
- L1-4away to Wolves29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Watford vs Stoke City
- 12 September 2026Watford 1–2 Stoke CityChampionship
- 14 March 2026Stoke City 3–1 WatfordChampionship
- 20 December 2025Watford 1–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 1 March 2025Stoke City 0–0 WatfordChampionship
- 17 August 2024Watford 3–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 29 December 2023Watford 1–1 Stoke CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Watford and Stoke City
Watford
- Amin Nabizada3 goals
Stoke City
- E. Galbraith3 goals
- E. Bocat2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.