Watford vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Watford 1-2 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Watford, 29% draw, 31% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Watford at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Watford vs Stoke City
Line-ups
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 4K. KebenD
- 6M. PollockD
- 3S. CoulibalyD
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 39E. KayembeM
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 7O. MaammaM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 45S. MavididiM
- 20M. DoumbiaF
- 18M. AntonioF
- 26D. BachmannG
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 21Amin NabizadaF
- 23O. TraoréD
- 11R. VataF
- 24S. WalkerG
- 56Albert EamesD
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 16B. WilmotD
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 13J. DevennyM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 17E. BocatM
- 11L. CisséF
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 23B. GibsonD
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 15G. HirstF
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 4B. PearsonM
- 19T. RigoM
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 21L. BombinoD
- 43F. AndersonD
Form going into Watford vs Stoke City
Watford
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Preston8 September 2026
- L0-1away to West Brom5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Swansea1 September 2026
- D1-1West Ham29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham22 August 2026
Stoke City
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
- W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
- W1-0Norwich1 September 2026
- L1-4away to Wolves29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton22 August 2026
What these results say
- Watford conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Watford had two goals or fewer.
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Watford vs Stoke City
- 14 March 2026Stoke City 3–1 WatfordChampionship
- 20 December 2025Watford 1–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 1 March 2025Stoke City 0–0 WatfordChampionship
- 17 August 2024Watford 3–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 29 December 2023Watford 1–1 Stoke CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Watford and Stoke City
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- J. McGlynn52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Stoke City won 2–1 at Watford. The model had leaned towards a win for Watford at 40% and given a win for Stoke City 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jack Mcglynn 45+4' for Stoke City, Eric Junior Bocat 57' for Stoke City, Amin Nabizada 90+1' for Watford.
How the call on Watford v Stoke City has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Watford's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Watford win40%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Stoke City win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.