12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Swansea vs Burnley Championship prediction & result

Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Swansea 3-1 Burnley.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Swansea, 29% draw, 37% Burnley — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Burnley at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Swansea99%Draw1%Burnley0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Adam Idah
13'
⚽Moussa Kounfolo Yeoassist: Elijah Just
33'
🔁Josh Keyout: Filip Lissah
45'
54'
🔁Aaron Ramseyout: Lucas Pires Silva
58'
⚽Largie Ramazaniassist: Igor Júlio
59'
Lucas Pires Silva
Moussa Kounfolo Yeo
59'
🔁Moussa Kounfolo Yeoout: Ronald Pereira Martins
64'
🔁Adam Idahout: Zan Vipotnik
64'
65'
🔁Ugo Raghouberout: Jamie Vardy
⚽Zan Vipotnikassist: Ronald Pereira Martins
68'
Filip Lissah
72'
🔁Elijah Justout: Goncalo Franco
77'
82'
🔁Oliver Sonneout: Andréas Hountondji
82'
🔁Zeki Amdouniout: Reo Hatate
82'
🔁Largie Ramazaniout: Armando Broja
🔁Stephen Eustáquioout: Jay Fulton
85'

Match stats — Swansea vs Burnley

54%Possession46%
14Shots18
7On target6
3Corners6

Line-ups

Swansea 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. VigourouxG
  • 2J. KeyD
  • 5B. CabangoD
  • 23S. WelshD
  • 14J. TymonD
  • 46S. EustáquioM
  • 6M. StamenićM
  • 8E. JustM
  • 7M. WidellM
  • 49M. YeoM
  • 33A. IdahF
Substitutes
  • 1A. FisherG
  • 17Gonçalo FrancoM
  • 4J. FultonM
  • 26F. LissahD
  • 30Joseph OkopuF
  • 20Tiago ParenteD
  • 35RonaldF
  • 3J. SeeltD
  • 9Z. VipotnikF
Coach: Vítor Matos
Burnley 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. WeißG
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 44IgorD
  • 14C. RobertsD
  • 8U. RaghouberM
  • 3Max AlleyneM
  • 21A. RamseyM
  • 29J. LaurentM
  • 19L. RamazaniM
  • 11Z. AmdouniF
Substitutes
  • 9J. VardyF
  • 23Lucas PiresD
  • 17A. HountondjiF
  • 5R. HatateM
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 30L. CastellF
  • 27A. BrojaF
  • 15A. AhmedhodžićD
Coach: N. Hayen

Form going into Swansea vs Burnley

Swansea

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
  • D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
  • W2-0Watford1 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Derby29 August 2026
  • D0-0Sheffield Utd22 August 2026

Burnley

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
  • L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
  • D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to West Brom23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Swansea kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Swansea158252218+426
22Burnley151772231-910

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Swansea vs Burnley

  • 15 March 2025Swansea 0–2 BurnleyChampionship
  • 10 November 2024Burnley 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
  • 2 January 2023Swansea 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
  • 15 October 2022Burnley 4–0 SwanseaChampionship
  • 10 February 2018Swansea 1–0 BurnleyPremier League

The full Swansea vs Burnley record →

The result against the call

Swansea beat Burnley 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Burnley at 37% and given a win for Swansea 34%. The goals: Adam Idah 13' for Swansea, Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 33' for Swansea, Largie Ramazani 58' for Burnley, Zan Vipotnik 68' for Swansea.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.