West Ham vs Charlton Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Ham 1-2 Charlton.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% West Ham, 21% draw, 13% Charlton — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 66% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Ham vs Charlton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Mads HermansenG
- 2Kyle Walker-PetersD
- 15Konstantinos MavropanosD
- 3Max KilmanD
- 30Oliver ScarlesD
- 20Jarrod BowenM
- 7Arne EngelsM
- 17Mohamadou KantéM
- 10Manor SolomonM
- 9Joël PiroeF
- 11Valentín CastellanosF
- 61Lewis OrfordM
- 23Alphonse AréolaG
- 58Airidas GolambeckisD
- 63Ezra MayersD
- 34Joël VeltmanD
- 14Divine MukasaM
- 21Keiber LamadridM
- 8James Ward-ProwseM
- 66Joshua AjalaF
- 13Arthur OkonkwoG
- 20Danny McNamaraD
- 5Lloyd JonesD
- 12Billy KoumetioD
- 17Amari'i BellD
- 6Conor CoventryM
- 15Nathaniel ChalobahM
- 9Karlan GrantM
- 14Sonny CareyM
- 7Tyreece CampbellM
- 11Miles LeaburnF
- 21Tiernan BrooksG
- 28Collins SichenjeD
- 18Ivan MesíkD
- 32Alan MwambaD
- 19Millenic AlliF
- 30Robert ApterM
- 8Harvey KnibbsM
- 26Joe Rankin-CostelloM
- 33Micah MbickF
Form going into West Ham vs Charlton
West Ham
- D2-2away to Burnley16 August 2026
Charlton
- W2-1Derby15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 14 |
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Ham vs Charlton
- 22 August 2026West Ham 1–2 CharltonChampionship
- 15 September 2020West Ham 3–0 CharltonLeague Cup
Leading scorers: West Ham and Charlton
West Ham
- J. Bowen4 goals3 assists
- J. Piroe3 goals
- K. Mavropanos3 goals
Charlton
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.