22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

QPR vs Bolton Championship prediction & result

Loftus Road, London
Full time0 – 0

Final score: QPR 0-0 Bolton.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% QPR, 32% draw, 37% Bolton — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bolton at 37% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

QPR3%Draw94%Bolton3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+1'
T. Gale
46'
🔁A. Famewoout: B. Davies
59'
🔁T. Galeout: S. Iling Junior
59'
🔁J. McAteeout: R. Hardie
🔁R. Koneout: R. Burrell
62'
🔁K. Pokuout: N. Madsen
62'
🔁K. Adamsonout: D. Cirkin
62'
🔁A. S. Mbengueout: T. Lamptey
62'
67'
🔁G. Larrazabalout: K. Dong
73'
R. Hardie
J. Clarke-Salter
75'
🔁K. Saitoout: P. Smyth
76'

Match stats — QPR vs Bolton

52%Possession48%
9Shots1
6On target0
3Corners1
0.97xG0.06

Goals against chances

QPR0 from 0.97 xGless than the chances were worth
Bolton0 from 0.06 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

QPR 4-2-3-1
  • 1Pierce CharlesG
  • 27Amadou Salif MbengueD
  • 3Jimmy DunneD
  • 6Jake Clarke-SalterD
  • 2Kealey AdamsonD
  • 20Harvey ValeM
  • 5Ronnie EdwardsM
  • 17Kwame PokuM
  • 10Ilias ChairM
  • 14Koki SaitoM
  • 22Richard KoneF
Substitutes
  • 13Calum WardG
  • 19Dennis CirkinD
  • 48Tariq LampteyD
  • 24Nicolas MadsenM
  • 40Jonathan VaraneM
  • 11Paul SmythF
  • 23Isak Alemayehu MulugetaM
  • 16Rumarn BurrellF
  • 15Alfie LloydF
Coach: Julien Stephan
Bolton 4-2-3-1
  • 1Jack BonhamG
  • 5Lewis BruntD
  • 3Chris ForinoD
  • 14Akin FamewoD
  • 25Max ConwayD
  • 8Josh SheehanM
  • 21Ethan ErhahonM
  • 22Gaizka LarrazabalM
  • 45John McAteeM
  • 11Thierry GaleM
  • 10Sam DalbyF
Substitutes
  • 6Ben DaviesD
  • 23David HarringtonG
  • 18Eoin ToalD
  • 29Cyrus ChristieD
  • 16Samuel Iling JuniorF
  • 12David WatsonM
  • 7Kyliane DongF
  • 54Tobias RitchieM
  • 39Ryan HardieF
Coach: Steven Schumacher

Form going into QPR vs Bolton

QPR

  • W3-1away to Portsmouth15 August 2026

Bolton

  • W2-1Preston15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5QPR733185+312
20Bolton7214712-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: QPR vs Bolton

  • 22 August 2026QPR 0–0 BoltonChampionship
  • 30 March 2019QPR 1–2 BoltonChampionship
  • 15 September 2018Bolton 1–2 QPRChampionship
  • 17 February 2018QPR 2–0 BoltonChampionship
  • 21 October 2017Bolton 1–1 QPRChampionship
  • 20 February 2016Bolton 1–1 QPRChampionship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.