22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Wrexham vs Watford Championship prediction & result

Racecourse Ground, Wrexham
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Wrexham 1-1 Watford.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Wrexham, 21% draw, 22% Watford — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Wrexham at 57% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wrexham6%Draw90%Watford4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽L. Kjerrumgaardassist: O. H. Traore
N. Broadhead
20'
⚽D. Imray
22'
45'
🔁O. H. Traoreout: A. Eames
58'
🔁O. Maammaout: M. Payero
🔁K. Mooreout: S. Smith
63'
67'
🔁E. Boveout: E. Kayembe
67'
🔁L. Kjerrumgaardout: R. Vata
67'
🔁A. Nabizadaout: M. Doumbia
🔁O. Rathboneout: B. Cadamarteri
70'
B. Whiteman
72'
🔁N. Broadheadout: M. James
78'
🔁D. Imrayout: R. Longman
78'
🔁G. Thomasonout: M. Cleworth
90+4'

Match stats — Wrexham vs Watford

54%Possession46%
6Shots5
2On target4
3Corners1
0.85xG0.33

Goals against chances

Wrexham1 from 0.85 xGabout what the chances were worth
Watford1 from 0.33 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wrexham 3-4-2-1
  • 22Anthony PattersonG
  • 26Zak VynerD
  • 5Dominic HyamD
  • 2Callum DoyleD
  • 30Daniel ImrayM
  • 8Ben WhitemanM
  • 27Lewis O'BrienM
  • 14George ThomasonM
  • 20Oliver RathboneF
  • 33Nathan BroadheadF
  • 19Kieffer MooreF
Substitutes
  • 21Danny WardG
  • 24Dan ScarrD
  • 4Max CleworthD
  • 47Ryan LongmanM
  • 15George DobsonM
  • 37Matty JamesM
  • 11Bailey CadamarteriF
  • 7Davis Keillor-DunnF
  • 28Sam SmithF
Coach: Phil Parkinson
Watford 4-2-3-1
  • 1Federico RavagliaG
  • 23Omar Haktab TraoreD
  • 6Matthew PollockD
  • 4Kévin Keben BiakoloD
  • 33Jordan ZemuraD
  • 8Edoardo BoveM
  • 5Hector KyprianouM
  • 21Amin NabizadaM
  • 17Iker BravoM
  • 7Othmane MaammaM
  • 9Luca KjerrumgaardF
Substitutes
  • 56Albert EamesD
  • 26Daniel BachmannG
  • 53James ClarridgeD
  • 39Edo KayembeM
  • 22Martín PayeroM
  • 48Michael Adu-PokuF
  • 52Leo Ramirez-EspainM
  • 20Mamadou DoumbiaF
  • 11Rocco VataF
Coach: Alessio Dionisi

Form going into Wrexham vs Watford

Wrexham

  • D1-1away to Cardiff17 August 2026

Watford

  • W2-1Southampton16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Wrexham7142711-47
17Watford722379-28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Watford

  • 22 August 2026Wrexham 1–1 WatfordChampionship
  • 17 March 2026Watford 3–1 WrexhamChampionship
  • 13 December 2025Wrexham 2–2 WatfordChampionship

Leading scorers: Wrexham and Watford

Wrexham

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Watford

  • Amin Nabizada3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.