Southampton vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Southampton 3-1 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Southampton, 25% draw, 21% Stoke City — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 54% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Southampton vs Stoke City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14James BreeD
- 15Nathan WoodD
- 5Jack StephensD
- 3Ryan ManningD
- 4Flynn DownesM
- 27Kuryu MatsukiM
- 18Tom FellowsM
- 10Finn AzazM
- 7Leo ScienzaM
- 9Cyle LarinF
- 25George LongG
- 17Joshua QuarshieD
- 34WelingtonD
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 29Romeo AkachukwuM
- 23Samuel EdozieM
- 11Lewis DobbinF
- 28Divin MubamaF
- 19Cameron ArcherF
- 1Viktor JohanssonG
- 2Ben JohnsonD
- 16Ben WilmotD
- 23Ben GibsonD
- 17Eric BocatD
- 27Djibril SoumaréM
- 8Ethan GalbraithM
- 20Sam GallagherM
- 10Jun-Ho BaeM
- 7Sorba ThomasM
- 15George HirstF
- 24Joshua GriffithsG
- 5Luke GrahamD
- 40Maksym TalovierovD
- 52Laurence GianiD
- 6Svante IngelssonM
- 42Million ManhoefF
- 19Tomáš RigoM
- 4Ben PearsonM
- 9Róbert BoženíkF
Form going into Southampton vs Stoke City
Southampton
- L1-2away to Watford16 August 2026
Stoke City
- L1-2Swansea15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 10 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Stoke City
- 22 August 2026Southampton 3–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 31 January 2026Stoke City 0–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 23 August 2025Southampton 1–2 Stoke CityChampionship
- 29 October 2024Southampton 3–2 Stoke CityLeague Cup
- 27 April 2024Southampton 0–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 3 October 2023Stoke City 0–1 SouthamptonChampionship
Leading scorers: Southampton and Stoke City
Southampton
- C. Larin7 goals
- F. Azaz3 goals4 assists
Stoke City
- E. Galbraith3 goals
- E. Bocat2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.