Swansea vs Sheffield Utd Championship prediction & result
Final score: Swansea 0-0 Sheffield Utd.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Swansea, 23% draw, 26% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swansea at 51% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Swansea vs Sheffield Utd
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Lawrence VigourouxG
- 26Filip LissahD
- 5Ben CabangoD
- 23Stephen WelshD
- 14Josh TymonD
- 6Marko StamenićM
- 4Jay FultonM
- 30Joseph OpokuM
- 8Elijah JustM
- 49Moussa Kounfolo YeoM
- 33Adam IdahF
- 1Andrew FisherG
- 2Josh KeyD
- 20Tiago ParenteD
- 21Leo WaltaM
- 10Ji-sung EomF
- 35RonaldF
- 7Melker WidellM
- 9Žan VipotnikF
- 31Ross StewartF
- 1Michael CooperG
- 5Japhet TangangaD
- 25Mark McGuinnessD
- 3Sam McCallumD
- 7Joe RothwellM
- 38Femi SerikiM
- 4Oliver ArblasterM
- 42Sydie PeckM
- 14Harrison BurrowsM
- 45Patrick BamfordF
- 10Callum O'HareF
- 17Adam DaviesG
- 2Matt DohertyD
- 33Jamal BaptisteM
- 30Rhys Norrington-DaviesD
- 16Jamie ShackletonD
- 44Jaïro RiedewaldM
- 11Romelle DonovanM
- 23Tyrese CampbellF
- 9Thomas CannonF
Form going into Swansea vs Sheffield Utd
Swansea
- W2-1away to Stoke City15 August 2026
Sheffield Utd
- D0-0Birmingham15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Swansea vs Sheffield Utd
- 22 August 2026Swansea 0–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 3 April 2026Sheffield Utd 3–3 SwanseaChampionship
- 16 August 2025Swansea 1–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 21 January 2025Swansea 1–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 2 October 2024Sheffield Utd 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 11 February 2023Sheffield Utd 3–0 SwanseaChampionship
Leading scorers: Swansea and Sheffield Utd
Swansea
- A. Idah3 goals1 assists
Sheffield Utd
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.