Wigan vs Mansfield Town League One prediction & result
Final score: Wigan 0-0 Mansfield Town.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Wigan, 29% draw, 42% Mansfield Town — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Mansfield Town at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wigan vs Mansfield Town
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41J. WhitworthG
- 6J. WeirD
- 23J. CarragherD
- 5F. BurnsD
- 2C. BarrettM
- 8M. PowerM
- 18Charlie GrayM
- 21K'Marni MillerM
- 27B. BurrowsM
- 10R. WalshM
- 25S. HoganF
- 3M. FoxD
- 17A. HigginsF
- 22J. MellishD
- 7F. MurrayM
- 38C. SaydeeF
- 14R. TrevittM
- 1J. WalshG
- 1L. RobertsG
- 2K. KnoyleD
- 23A. OshilajaD
- 5R. SweeneyD
- 25L. ReedM
- 22N. Moriah-WelshM
- 13J. RussellM
- 4E. HewittM
- 9J. BoweryM
- 14M. SmithF
- 18R. OatesF
- 8L. BoltonD
- 39O. DodgsonD
- 24R. HendryM
- 10G. MarisM
- 3S. McLaughlinD
- 28O. TaylorM
- 20F. Blake-TracyD
Form going into Wigan vs Mansfield Town
Wigan
League One
- W3-2Bromley31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Leicester27 October 2026
- L1-2away to Huddersfield24 October 2026
Mansfield Town
League One
- L0-2Notts County31 October 2026
- W4-1away to Blackpool24 October 2026
- W3-0away to AFC Wimbledon20 October 2026
- D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026
What these results say
- Mansfield Town scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Mansfield Town conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wigan | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
| 12 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wigan vs Mansfield Town
- 11 April 2026Wigan 2–1 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 25 October 2025Mansfield Town 1–1 WiganLeague One
- 4 March 2025Mansfield Town 0–0 WiganLeague One
- 14 January 2025Mansfield Town 0–2 WiganFA Cup
- 22 October 2024Wigan 1–2 Mansfield TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Wigan and Mansfield Town
Wigan
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Mansfield Town
GoalsAssists
- M. Smith62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wigan and Mansfield Town drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Mansfield Town at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.22.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wigan a 50.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 41.4% after a win, 52.8% after a draw, 55.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 52.8%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For Mansfield Town the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 7.4% going in: 8.8% after a win, 6.3% after a draw, 5.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.3%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Wigan v Mansfield Town has moved
First published on 23 Sep at 32% / 31% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 29% / 29% / 42%: the biggest move is Mansfield Town's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Wigan win29%▼ −3
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Mansfield Town win42%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.