Northampton vs Oldham League Two prediction & result
Final score: Northampton 0-1 Oldham.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Northampton, 34% draw, 28% Oldham — fair odds of 2.63, 2.94 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Northampton at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Northampton vs Oldham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Z. JeacockG
- 44J. DonacienD
- 6E. MooreD
- 5J. GuthrieD
- 16J. WormleightonM
- 24C. Lemonheigh-EvansM
- 8L. EvansM
- 22Joshua Alan PowellM
- 19O. DaleM
- 4J. O'Brien-WhitmarshM
- 9Matthew WarhurstF
- 20L. BriggsM
- 31J. DadgeG
- 35M. DycheD
- 14T. FornahM
- 10E. ListF
- 3J. MaxwellD
- 32H. SaundersF
- 1M. HudsonG
- 16W. SuttonD
- 5D. DanielsD
- 6E. MontheD
- 3J. RobsonD
- 2G. Scott-MorrissM
- 4T. PettM
- 8O. NorburnM
- 14N. ChilversM
- 10C. KavanaghF
- 9M. Fondop-TalumF
- 17F. FawunmiF
- 27O. HammondM
- 21J. HawkesM
- 20E. NevittF
- 24L. TempleD
- 22Wilson WilsonG
- 19Z. TahirD
Form going into Northampton vs Oldham
Northampton
League Two
- D1-1away to Accrington Stanley31 October 2026
- W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
- L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026
Oldham
League Two
- L0-1Crawley Town31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Barnet24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Northampton | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Northampton vs Oldham
- 1 November 2025Oldham 3–1 NorthamptonFA Cup
- 15 April 2022Oldham 0–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 23 November 2021Northampton 2–1 OldhamLeague Two
- 2 November 2019Oldham 2–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 4 May 2019Oldham 2–5 NorthamptonLeague Two
Leading scorers: Northampton and Oldham
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Oldham won 1–0 at Northampton. The model had leaned towards a win for Northampton at 38% and given a win for Oldham 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Oliver Norburn 70' for Oldham. On expected goals it finished 1.11–0.84.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Oldham a 6.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 4.5% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.5%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Northampton v Oldham has moved
First published on 23 Sep at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 34% / 28%: the biggest move is Oldham's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Northampton win38%▲ +3
- Draw34%▲ +4
- Oldham win28%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.