Newcastle Jets vs SHANGHAI SIPG AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Newcastle Jets 2-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Newcastle Jets, 25% draw, 36% SHANGHAI SIPG — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Newcastle Jets at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newcastle Jets vs SHANGHAI SIPG
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. DelianovG
- 22J. BertolissioD
- 39T. AquilinaD
- 2A. GrantD
- 23D. WilmeringD
- 14M. BurgessM
- 11J. LolleyF
- 6Z. SchreiberM
- 27Julian RecchiaM
- 43X. BertoncelloF
- 8P. WoodF
- 64Jesse HillF
- 52Nicholas BadolatoM
- 5J. ShaughnessyD
- 40J. BaylisG
- 61Angus ReidD
- 28W. DobsonM
- 26Oscar GonzalezF
- 24A. NunesM
- 19A. BadolatoM
- 1Yan JunlingG
- 13Wei ZhenD
- 3Jiang GuangtaiD
- 40Yusup UmidjanD
- 22Xi Yang AlexD
- 10Mateus VitalM
- 16Jaume GrauM
- 21Óscar MelendoM
- 32Li ShuaiD
- 45LeonardoF
- 17P. AmpemF
- 4Wang Zhen'aoD
- 5Zhang LinpengD
- 6Zhang YuanM
- 7Wu LeiF
- 8K. AziangbeM
- 12Chen WeiG
- 19Wang Zhen'aoD
- 23Fu HuanD
- 28Yue XinD
Form going into Newcastle Jets vs SHANGHAI SIPG
Newcastle Jets
AFC Champions League Elite
- L2-5away to Kyoto Sanga27 October 2026
- L1-3Gamba Osaka13 October 2026
- L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026
SHANGHAI SIPG
AFC Champions League Elite
- L2-3Công An Nhân Dân27 October 2026
- D1-1Daejeon Citizen13 October 2026
- W6-4away to Ratchaburi15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 0 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Newcastle Jets and SHANGHAI SIPG
Newcastle Jets
GoalsAssists
- P. Wood40
SHANGHAI SIPG
GoalsAssists
- P. Ampem61
- Leonardo21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SHANGHAI SIPG won 4–2 at Newcastle Jets. The model had leaned towards a win for Newcastle Jets at 39% and given a win for SHANGHAI SIPG 36%. The goals: Leonardo Nascimento Lopes de Souza 23' for SHANGHAI SIPG, Thomas Aquilina (own goal) 26' for SHANGHAI SIPG, Prince Ampem 51' for SHANGHAI SIPG, Patrick Wood 58' for Newcastle Jets, Xavier Bertoncello 80' for Newcastle Jets, Li Xinxiang 86' for SHANGHAI SIPG. On expected goals it finished 0.69–1.35.
How the call on Newcastle Jets v SHANGHAI SIPG has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 47% / 25% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 25% / 36%: the biggest move is Newcastle Jets's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Newcastle Jets win39%▼ −8
- Draw25%=
- SHANGHAI SIPG win36%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.