Wolves vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wolves 4-1 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Wolves, 22% draw, 15% Stoke City — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wolves at 63% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wolves vs Stoke City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. SaG
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 24TotiD
- 3H. BuenoD
- 7AndreM
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 21R. GomesM
- 28F. LopezM
- 36M. ManeM
- 9R. JimenezF
- 13J. VirginiaG
- 6D. WolfeD
- 4S. BuenoD
- 17Pedro LimaD
- 20T. DoyleM
- 8J. JamesM
- 12B. TraoreM
- 23T. ChirewaF
- 10A. ArmstrongF
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 2B. JohnsonD
- 18B. Lawal
- 16B. WilmotD
- 17E. BocatD
- 27D. SoumareM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 20S. GallagherM
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
- 7S. ThomasM
- 15G. HirstF
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 43F. AndersonD
- 52L. GianiD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 4B. PearsonM
- 19T. RigoM
- 9R. BozenikF
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 58T. MartinF
Form going into Wolves vs Stoke City
Wolves
- W3-1away to Preston22 August 2026
Stoke City
- L1-3away to Southampton22 August 2026
- L1-2Swansea15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wolves vs Stoke City
- 29 August 2026Wolves 4–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 26 July 2025Stoke City 1–1 WolvesFriendlies Clubs
- 31 July 2021Wolves 0–0 Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs
- 31 July 2021Stoke City 1–1 WolvesFriendlies Clubs
- 17 September 2020Wolves 0–1 Stoke CityLeague Cup
- 7 January 2017Stoke City 0–2 WolvesFA Cup
Leading scorers: Wolves and Stoke City
Wolves
- Fer López3 goals2 assists
- R. Jiménez3 goals1 assists
Stoke City
- E. Galbraith3 goals
- E. Bocat2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.