Wolves vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wolves 4-1 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Wolves, 22% draw, 15% Stoke City — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Wolves at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wolves vs Stoke City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. SaG
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 24TotiD
- 3H. BuenoD
- 7AndreM
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 21R. GomesM
- 28F. LopezM
- 36M. ManeM
- 9R. JimenezF
- 13J. VirginiaG
- 6D. WolfeD
- 4S. BuenoD
- 17Pedro LimaD
- 20T. DoyleM
- 8J. JamesM
- 12B. TraoreM
- 23T. ChirewaF
- 10A. ArmstrongF
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 2B. JohnsonD
- 18B. Lawal
- 16B. WilmotD
- 17E. BocatD
- 27D. SoumareM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 20S. GallagherM
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
- 7S. ThomasM
- 15G. HirstF
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 43F. AndersonD
- 52L. GianiD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 4B. PearsonM
- 19T. RigoM
- 9R. BozenikF
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 58T. MartinF
Form going into Wolves vs Stoke City
Wolves
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Preston22 August 2026
- D2-2Blackburn14 August 2026
Stoke City
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Southampton22 August 2026
- L1-2Swansea15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wolves vs Stoke City
- 26 July 2025Stoke City 1–1 WolvesFriendlies Clubs
- 31 July 2021Wolves 0–0 Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs
- 31 July 2021Stoke City 1–1 WolvesFriendlies Clubs
- 17 September 2020Wolves 0–1 Stoke CityLeague Cup
- 7 January 2017Stoke City 0–2 WolvesFA Cup
Leading scorers: Wolves and Stoke City
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- J. McGlynn52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wolves beat Stoke City 4–1. The model had made a win for Wolves its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Sam Gallagher 2' for Stoke City, Rodrigo Gomes 19' for Wolves, Rodrigo Gomes 22' for Wolves, Raúl Jiménez (penalty) 55' for Wolves, Jordan James 84' for Wolves. On expected goals it finished 2.64–0.88.