Norwich vs Burnley Championship prediction & result
Final score: Norwich 4-1 Burnley.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Norwich, 26% draw, 37% Burnley — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Norwich at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Norwich vs Burnley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Vladan KovačevićG
- 3Jack StaceyD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 33José CórdobaD
- 14Ben ChriseneD
- 23Kenny McLeanM
- 7Pelle MattssonM
- 11Andre BrooksM
- 29Oscar SchwartauM
- 49Anthony MusabaM
- 21Mohamed TouréF
- 20Anis Ben SlimaneM
- 19Papa Amadou DialloF
- 17Ante CrnacF
- 30Mathias KvistgaardenF
- 16Jacob WrightM
- 32Daniel GrimshawG
- 6Harry DarlingD
- 13Darlin YongwaD
- 35Kellen FisherD
- 1Max WeissG
- 2Kyle WalkerD
- 15Anel AhmedhodžićD
- 3Max AlleyneD
- 14Connor RobertsD
- 28Hannibal MejbriM
- 29Josh LaurentM
- 7Jacob Bruun LarsenM
- 21Aaron RamseyM
- 12Dastan SatpaevM
- 19Zian FlemmingF
- 10Marcus EdwardsF
- 11Zeki AmdouniF
- 17Andreas HountondjiF
- 8Ugo RaghouberM
- 37Grégoire CoudertG
- 20Shurandy SamboD
- 4Joe WorrallD
- 18Hjalmar EkdalD
- 31Mike TrésorF
Form going into Norwich vs Burnley
Norwich
- L0-3away to Millwall22 August 2026
- L1-2West Brom15 August 2026
Burnley
- L1-3away to West Brom23 August 2026
- D2-2West Ham16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Norwich vs Burnley
- 29 August 2026Norwich 4–1 BurnleyChampionship
- 11 April 2025Burnley 2–1 NorwichChampionship
- 15 December 2024Norwich 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
- 4 February 2023Norwich 0–3 BurnleyChampionship
- 25 October 2022Burnley 1–0 NorwichChampionship
- 10 April 2022Norwich 2–0 BurnleyPremier League
Leading scorers: Norwich and Burnley
Norwich
- M. Touré4 goals
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.