Norwich vs Burnley Championship prediction & result
Final score: Norwich 4-1 Burnley.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Norwich, 26% draw, 37% Burnley — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Norwich at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Norwich vs Burnley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Vladan KovačevićG
- 3Jack StaceyD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 33José CórdobaD
- 14Ben ChriseneD
- 23Kenny McLeanM
- 7Pelle MattssonM
- 11Andre BrooksM
- 29Oscar SchwartauM
- 49Anthony MusabaM
- 21Mohamed TouréF
- 20Anis Ben SlimaneM
- 19Papa Amadou DialloF
- 17Ante CrnacF
- 30Mathias KvistgaardenF
- 16Jacob WrightM
- 32Daniel GrimshawG
- 6Harry DarlingD
- 13Darlin YongwaD
- 35Kellen FisherD
- 1Max WeissG
- 2Kyle WalkerD
- 15Anel AhmedhodžićD
- 3Max AlleyneD
- 14Connor RobertsD
- 28Hannibal MejbriM
- 29Josh LaurentM
- 7Jacob Bruun LarsenM
- 21Aaron RamseyM
- 12Dastan SatpaevM
- 19Zian FlemmingF
- 10Marcus EdwardsF
- 11Zeki AmdouniF
- 17Andreas HountondjiF
- 8Ugo RaghouberM
- 37Grégoire CoudertG
- 20Shurandy SamboD
- 4Joe WorrallD
- 18Hjalmar EkdalD
- 31Mike TrésorF
Form going into Norwich vs Burnley
Norwich
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Millwall22 August 2026
- L1-2West Brom15 August 2026
Burnley
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to West Brom23 August 2026
- D2-2West Ham16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 21 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Norwich vs Burnley
- 11 April 2025Burnley 2–1 NorwichChampionship
- 15 December 2024Norwich 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
- 4 February 2023Norwich 0–3 BurnleyChampionship
- 25 October 2022Burnley 1–0 NorwichChampionship
- 10 April 2022Norwich 2–0 BurnleyPremier League
Leading scorers: Norwich and Burnley
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Norwich beat Burnley 4–1. The goals: Mohamed Touré 2' for Norwich, Andre Brooks 5' for Norwich, Mohamed Touré 21' for Norwich, Josh Laurent 27' for Burnley, Andre Brooks 67' for Norwich. Sent off: Josh Laurent (Burnley) 77'. On expected goals it finished 1.92–0.95.