Middlesbrough vs West Brom Championship prediction & result
Final score: Middlesbrough 3-1 West Brom.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Middlesbrough, 26% draw, 22% West Brom — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Middlesbrough vs West Brom
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. VitekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 12L. AylingD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 10A. MorrisM
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 11M. WhittakerM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 16J. SarmientoM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 31S. BrynnG
- 5A. JonesD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 19L. CastledineM
- 9T. ConwayF
- 13D. StrelecF
- 22K. JosephF
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 1M. O'LearyG
- 25N. GalvesD
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 4C. StylesD
- 29H. WhitwellM
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 17O. DiakiteM
- 21I. PriceM
- 7F. MyhreF
- 11J. Morgan
- 13M. IngramG
- 28A. WilliamsD
- 22C. TownsendD
- 2C. MephamD
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 19A. HeggeboF
- 23T. BanyF
- 26K. TundeF
- 9B. StewartF
Form going into Middlesbrough vs West Brom
Middlesbrough
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Blackburn22 August 2026
- W2-1Lincoln15 August 2026
West Brom
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Burnley23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Norwich15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs West Brom
- 16 January 2026West Brom 2–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 19 September 2025Middlesbrough 2–1 West BromChampionship
- 21 January 2025Middlesbrough 2–0 West BromChampionship
- 1 October 2024West Brom 0–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 23 December 2023Middlesbrough 1–0 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and West Brom
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Middlesbrough beat West Brom 3–1. The model had made a win for Middlesbrough its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Will Lankshear 48' for Middlesbrough, Jimmy Morgan 65' for West Brom, Will Lankshear 73' for Middlesbrough, Alfie Jones 87' for Middlesbrough. On expected goals it finished 2.46–1.40.