Middlesbrough vs West Brom Championship prediction & result
Final score: Middlesbrough 3-1 West Brom.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Middlesbrough, 26% draw, 22% West Brom — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Middlesbrough at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Middlesbrough vs West Brom
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. VitekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 12L. AylingD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 10A. MorrisM
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 11M. WhittakerM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 16J. SarmientoM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 31S. BrynnG
- 5A. JonesD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 19L. CastledineM
- 9T. ConwayF
- 13D. StrelecF
- 22K. JosephF
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 1M. O'LearyG
- 25N. GalvesD
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 4C. StylesD
- 29H. WhitwellM
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 17O. DiakiteM
- 21I. PriceM
- 7F. MyhreF
- 11J. Morgan
- 13M. IngramG
- 28A. WilliamsD
- 22C. TownsendD
- 2C. MephamD
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 19A. HeggeboF
- 23T. BanyF
- 26K. TundeF
- 9B. StewartF
Form going into Middlesbrough vs West Brom
Middlesbrough
- L1-2away to Blackburn22 August 2026
- W2-1Lincoln15 August 2026
West Brom
- W3-1Burnley23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Norwich15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs West Brom
- 29 August 2026Middlesbrough 3–1 West BromChampionship
- 16 January 2026West Brom 2–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 19 September 2025Middlesbrough 2–1 West BromChampionship
- 21 January 2025Middlesbrough 2–0 West BromChampionship
- 1 October 2024West Brom 0–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 23 December 2023Middlesbrough 1–0 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and West Brom
Middlesbrough
- W. Lankshear6 goals
West Brom
- J. Morgan3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.