Southampton vs Millwall Championship prediction & result
Final score: Southampton 5-1 Millwall.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Southampton, 27% draw, 34% Millwall — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Southampton vs Millwall
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14James BreeD
- 15Nathan WoodD
- 13Keven SchlotterbeckD
- 3Ryan ManningD
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 4Flynn DownesM
- 27Kuryu MatsukiM
- 10Finn AzazM
- 7Leo ScienzaM
- 9Cyle LarinF
- 30James Ward-ProwseM
- 28Divin MubamaF
- 18Tom FellowsM
- 11Lewis DobbinF
- 5Jack StephensD
- 25George LongG
- 34WelingtonD
- 29Romeo AkachukwuM
- 23Samuel EdozieM
- 15Max CrocombeG
- 17Mark SykesD
- 6Caleb TaylorD
- 5Jake CooperD
- 3Zak SturgeD
- 10Camiel NeghliM
- 24Casper De NorreM
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 7Tairyk ArconteF
- 19Josh CoburnF
- 22Kyrell LisbieF
- 25Luke CundleM
- 12Elkan BaggottD
- 16Daniel KellyM
- 29Zak LovelaceF
- 13Lyndon DykesF
- 43Joel ColemanG
- 23Danny BatthD
- 2Jordi Osei-TutuD
- 44Alfie MasseyM
Form going into Southampton vs Millwall
Southampton
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Stoke City22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Watford16 August 2026
Millwall
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Norwich22 August 2026
- W2-0away to Bristol City15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Millwall
- 1 January 2026Southampton 0–0 MillwallChampionship
- 29 November 2025Millwall 3–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 3 August 2024Millwall 0–1 SouthamptonFriendlies Clubs
- 24 February 2024Southampton 1–2 MillwallChampionship
- 4 November 2023Millwall 0–1 SouthamptonChampionship
Leading scorers: Southampton and Millwall
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Millwall
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Southampton beat Millwall 5–1. The model had made a win for Southampton its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mark Sykes 15' for Millwall, Cyle Larin 25' for Southampton, Finn Azaz 38' for Southampton, Leo Scienza (penalty) 55' for Southampton, Cyle Larin 62' for Southampton, Tom Fellows 86' for Southampton. On expected goals it finished 3.21–1.09.