4 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result

Racecourse Ground, Wrexham
Referee: Oliver Langford
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Wrexham 2-0 Middlesbrough.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Wrexham, 27% draw, 43% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Middlesbrough at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wrexham99%Draw1%Middlesbrough0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

60'
🔁Sebastian Berhalterout: Myles Peart-Harris
60'
🔁Luke Aylingout: Max Arfsten
60'
🔁Kyle Josephout: Riley McGree
George Dobson
62'
⚽George Thomasonassist: Kieffer Moore
70'
72'
🔁Neto Borgesout: David Strelec
🔁George Thomasonout: Oliver Rathbone
77'
77'
🔁Tommy Conwayout: Jeremy Sarmiento
🔁George Dobsonout: Ben Sheaf
83'
⚽Oliver Rathboneassist: Lewis O'Brien
84'

Match stats — Wrexham vs Middlesbrough

38%Possession62%
15Shots12
4On target2
3Corners2
1.49xG0.97

Goals against chances

Wrexham2 from 1.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Middlesbrough0 from 0.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wrexham 3-5-1-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 4M. CleworthD
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 12I. KaboréM
  • 15G. DobsonM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 14G. ThomasonM
  • 3J. EkomiéM
  • 27L. O'BrienM
  • 19K. MooreF
Substitutes
  • 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
  • 11B. CadamarteriF
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 18B. SheafM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 21D. WardG
Coach: P. Parkinson
Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. VítekG
  • 12L. AylingD
  • 4A. PhillipsD
  • 29A. MalandaD
  • 2C. BrittainM
  • 10A. MorrisM
  • 6S. BerhalterM
  • 30Neto BorgesM
  • 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
  • 9T. ConwayM
  • 22K. JosephF
Substitutes
  • 17M. ArfstenD
  • 18C. BarronM
  • 31S. BrynnG
  • 3S. ByramD
  • 19Leo CastledineM
  • 8R. McGreeM
  • 14M. Peart-HarrisM
  • 16J. SarmientoF
  • 13D. StrelecF
Coach: K. Hellberg

Form going into Wrexham vs Middlesbrough

Wrexham

Championship

  • L0-1away to Sheffield Utd30 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Blackburn24 October 2026
  • W4-1Preston17 October 2026

Middlesbrough

Championship

  • W3-0Charlton31 October 2026
  • W5-1away to Bolton23 October 2026
  • D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Wrexham154651820-218
2Middlesbrough158523019+1129

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Middlesbrough

  • 7 August 2026Middlesbrough 1–0 WrexhamLeague Cup
  • 2 May 2026Wrexham 2–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
  • 25 October 2025Middlesbrough 1–1 WrexhamChampionship

Leading scorers: Wrexham and Middlesbrough

Wrexham

GoalsAssists

  • K. Moore52

Middlesbrough

GoalsAssists

  • W. Lankshear130

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wrexham beat Middlesbrough 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Middlesbrough at 43% and given a win for Wrexham 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: George Thomason 70' for Wrexham, Oliver Rathbone 84' for Wrexham. On expected goals it finished 1.49–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wrexham a 7.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.0% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.0%, 3 points lower than before the match.

For Middlesbrough the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 46.1% going in: 51.5% after a win, 43.5% after a draw, 40.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.6%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wrexham v Middlesbrough has moved

First published on 21 Oct at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 27% / 43%: the biggest move is Wrexham's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Wrexham win30%▼ −5
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Middlesbrough win43%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.