4 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Bristol City vs Wolves Championship prediction & result

Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
Referee: Tom Nield
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Bristol City 1-2 Wolves.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Bristol City, 29% draw, 38% Wolves — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wolves at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bristol City0%Draw3%Wolves97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Scott Twine
34'
55'
🔁Marshall Munetsiout: Rodrigo Gomes
🔁Sam Bellisout: Yu Hirakawa
58'
Cameron Pring
63'
65'
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
🔁Rio Cardinesout: Jed Wallace
67'
🔁Scott Twineout: Dominic Ballard
67'
73'
🔁Rafiki Said Ahamadaout: Mateus Mane
73'
🔁Fer Lópezout: Sean Neave
73'
🔁Jean-Ricner Bellegardeout: Thomas Doyle
82'
⚽Sean Neave
85'
🔁Adam Armstrongout: Tawanda Chirewa
🔁Joe Williamsout: Adam Randell
85'
Luke McNally
88'
89'
⚽Sean Neaveassist: Ladislav Krejčí

Match stats — Bristol City vs Wolves

38%Possession62%
5Shots17
3On target8
2Corners5
0.73xG2.23

Goals against chances

Bristol City1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wolves2 from 2.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bristol City 4-2-3-1
  • 40B. CollinsG
  • 19G. TannerD
  • 15L. McNallyD
  • 2L. EissatD
  • 3C. PringD
  • 12J. KnightM
  • 8J. WilliamsM
  • 21Rio CardinesM
  • 11S. BellM
  • 10S. TwineM
  • 9L. TolajF
Substitutes
  • 17J. WallaceM
  • 5R. AtkinsonD
  • 23D. BallardF
  • 6B. De KeersmaeckerM
  • 20S. GreenwoodM
  • 7Y. HirakawaM
  • 14T. HorvatM
  • 4A. RandellM
  • 1S. TickleG
Coach: M. Skubala
Wolves 4-2-3-1
  • 1José SáG
  • 2K. TrippierD
  • 15Y. MosqueraD
  • 37L. KrejčíD
  • 3Hugo BuenoD
  • 7AndréM
  • 5M. MunetsiM
  • 28Fer LópezM
  • 27J. BellegardeM
  • 19R. SaïdM
  • 10A. ArmstrongF
Substitutes
  • 13João VirgíniaG
  • 24Toti GomesD
  • 38J. TchatchouaD
  • 14S. NeaveF
  • 36M. ManeF
  • 21Rodrigo GomesF
  • 20T. DoyleM
  • 34N. DjigaD
  • 23T. ChirewaF
Coach: César Peixoto

Form going into Bristol City vs Wolves

Bristol City

Championship

  • W3-2away to Bolton31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Stoke City24 October 2026
  • L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026

Wolves

Championship

  • W3-0Cardiff31 October 2026
  • W1-0Watford24 October 2026
  • D1-1Portsmouth20 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Bristol City155371624-818
4Wolves158432618+828

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Wolves

  • 11 January 2025Bristol City 1–2 WolvesFA Cup
  • 17 February 2019Bristol City 0–1 WolvesFA Cup
  • 30 December 2017Bristol City 1–2 WolvesChampionship
  • 12 September 2017Wolves 3–3 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 8 April 2017Bristol City 3–1 WolvesChampionship
  • 26 December 2016Wolves 3–2 Bristol CityChampionship

The full Bristol City vs Wolves record →

Leading scorers: Bristol City and Wolves

Bristol City

GoalsAssists

  • S. Twine50

Wolves

GoalsAssists

  • Fer López63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wolves won 2–1 at Bristol City. The model had made a win for Wolves its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Scott Twine 34' for Bristol City, Sean Neave 82' for Wolves, Sean Neave 89' for Wolves. On expected goals it finished 0.73–2.23.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wolves a 15.8% chance to finish in the top two: 18.6% after a win, 14.5% after a draw, 12.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.6%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bristol City v Wolves has moved

First published on 21 Oct at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 29% / 38%: the biggest move is Bristol City's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Bristol City win33%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Wolves win38%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.