West Brom vs Southampton Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Brom 1-1 Southampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% West Brom, 29% draw, 41% Southampton — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Brom vs Southampton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 18B. PereiraD
- 2C. MephamD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 4C. StylesD
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 21I. PriceM
- 11J. MorganF
- 7F. MyhreF
- 23T. BanyF
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 13M. IngramG
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 9B. StewartF
- 22C. TownsendD
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 32R. ParmarF
- 35M. CrowtherM
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 5J. StephensD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 3R. ManningD
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 4F. DownesM
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 10F. AzazM
- 23S. EdozieM
- 28D. MubamaF
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 40Princewill EhibhatiomhanF
- 18T. FellowsM
- 25G. LongG
- 34WelingtonD
- 53Barnaby WilliamsM
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
Form going into West Brom vs Southampton
West Brom
Championship
- W3-1away to West Ham31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Preston24 October 2026
- W3-2Blackburn17 October 2026
Southampton
Championship
- W4-1QPR31 October 2026
- W3-2away to West Ham24 October 2026
- D0-0Bolton17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs West Brom
Southampton and West Brom have met 7 times in the records we hold, Southampton has won 4 of them to West Brom's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at West Brom on 3 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 6 |
| West Brom | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 Nov 2026
ChampionshipWest Brom 1–1 Southampton - 11 Mar 2026
ChampionshipWest Brom 1–1 Southampton - 9 Dec 2025
ChampionshipSouthampton 3–2 West Brom - 17 May 2024
ChampionshipSouthampton 3–1 West Brom - 12 May 2024
ChampionshipWest Brom 0–0 Southampton - 16 Feb 2024
ChampionshipWest Brom 0–2 Southampton - 11 Nov 2023
ChampionshipSouthampton 2–1 West Brom
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Southampton's attack rates 31% above West Brom's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| West Brom | 0.71 | 1.06 |
Leading scorers: West Brom and Southampton
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
West Brom and Southampton drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Southampton at 41% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Isaac Price (penalty) 22' for West Brom, Samuel Edozie 53' for Southampton. On expected goals it finished 2.12–1.40.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave West Brom a 5.7% chance to finish in the top two: 8.3% after a win, 5.1% after a draw, 3.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.1%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
For Southampton the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 49.3% going in: 55.0% after a win, 47.7% after a draw, 42.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 47.7%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.