Charlton vs Bolton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Charlton 0-1 Bolton.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Charlton, 29% draw, 35% Bolton — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Charlton at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charlton vs Bolton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25W. MannionG
- 20D. McNamaraD
- 5L. JonesD
- 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
- 17A. BellD
- 15N. ChalobahM
- 6C. CoventryM
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 7T. CampbellM
- 23C. KelmanF
- 19M. AlliF
- 44Tyler BindonD
- 14S. CareyM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 18I. MesíkD
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
- 34O. SkippM
- 24M. GoddenF
- 1J. BonhamG
- 27Luca StephensonD
- 3C. Forino-JosephD
- 14A. FamewoD
- 25M. ConwayD
- 4X. SimonsM
- 8J. SheehanM
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 17A. ItoM
- 35Max LottM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 20Ruben RodriguesF
- 12D. WatsonM
- 23D. HarringtonG
- 11T. GaleF
- 7K. DongF
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 6B. DaviesD
- 5L. BruntD
- 9T. BairF
Form going into Charlton vs Bolton
Charlton
Championship
- L0-3away to Middlesbrough31 October 2026
- L1-3Norwich24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026
Bolton
Championship
- L2-3Bristol City31 October 2026
- L1-5Middlesbrough23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Charlton
Bolton and Charlton have met 7 times in the records we hold, Bolton has won 4 of them to Charlton's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Bolton won the last one 1–0 on 3 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 |
| Charlton | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 Nov 2026
ChampionshipCharlton 0–1 Bolton - 21 Jan 2025
League OneBolton 1–2 Charlton - 24 Aug 2024
League OneCharlton 2–0 Bolton - 17 Feb 2024
League OneBolton 3–3 Charlton - 28 Oct 2023
League OneCharlton 0–2 Bolton - 28 Jan 2023
League OneCharlton 1–2 Bolton - 3 Sep 2022
League OneBolton 3–1 Charlton
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bolton's attack rates 40% above Charlton's, and Charlton concede 17% fewer than Bolton. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Charlton and Bolton
Charlton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bolton won 1–0 at Charlton. The model had leaned towards a win for Charlton at 36% and given a win for Bolton 35%. The goal: Sam Dalby 18' for Bolton. On expected goals it finished 0.93–0.72.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Charlton a 34.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.2% after a win, 35.4% after a draw, 40.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.3%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.
For Bolton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.3% going in: 11.9% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 18.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.9%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Charlton v Bolton has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 34% / 30% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Charlton's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Charlton win36%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Bolton win35%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.