4 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Cardiff vs West Ham Championship prediction & result

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Edward Duckworth
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Cardiff 3-3 West Ham.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Cardiff, 24% draw, 43% West Ham — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

West Ham at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cardiff5%Draw90%West Ham5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jack Moylanassist: Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson
11'
23'
Maximilian Kilman
25'
Soungoutou Magassa
⚽Jack Moylan (pen)
37'
⚽Jack Moylanassist: Joel Bagan
39'
45'
🔁Felipe Moratoout: Ezra Mayers
45'
🔁Soungoutou Magassaout: Mohamadou Kante
45'
🔁Taty Castellanosout: Joel Piroe
🔁Rubin Colwillout: Joel Colwill
55'
🔁Christopher Willockout: C. Ashford
56'
58'
⚽Divine Mukasaassist: Jarrod Bowen
65'
⚽Arne Engelsassist: Joel Piroe
69'
🔁Manor Solomonout: Edvin Austbö
🔁Calum Scanlonout: David Turnbull
72'
🔁Perry Tian Hee Ngout: Ronan Kpakio
72'
82'
⚽Maximilian Kilmanassist: Jarrod Bowen
84'
Joël Veltman
88'
🔁Joël Veltmanout: Tomáš Souček

Match stats — Cardiff vs West Ham

44%Possession56%
7Shots18
4On target10
4Corners6
1.18xG2.64

Goals against chances

Cardiff3 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth
West Ham3 from 2.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cardiff 4-1-4-1
  • 1N. TrottG
  • 38P. NgD
  • 2W. FishD
  • 3J. BaganD
  • 23C. ScanlonD
  • 18A. RobertsonM
  • 11O. TannerM
  • 8J. MoylanM
  • 10R. ColwillM
  • 16C. WillockM
  • 9Y. SalechF
Substitutes
  • 43P. MorenoM
  • 50Charlie HoltM
  • 27J. ColwillM
  • 45Cian AshfordF
  • 44R. KpakioD
  • 52T. PerrettM
  • 33R. TankiewiczM
  • 14D. TurnbullM
  • 30H. TyrerG
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy
West Ham 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. HermansenG
  • 34J. VeltmanD
  • 15K. MavropanosD
  • 3M. KilmanD
  • 5MoratoD
  • 20J. BowenM
  • 27S. MagassaM
  • 7A. EngelsM
  • 10M. SolomonM
  • 14D. MukasaM
  • 11V. CastellanosF
Substitutes
  • 23A. AreolaG
  • 35E. AustböF
  • 58A. GolambeckisD
  • 17M. KantéM
  • 63Ezra MayersD
  • 61L. OrfordM
  • 9J. PiroeF
  • 30O. ScarlesD
  • 28T. SoučekM
Coach: S. Parker

Form going into Cardiff vs West Ham

Cardiff

Championship

  • L0-3away to Wolves31 October 2026
  • W1-0Birmingham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026

West Ham

Championship

  • L1-3West Brom31 October 2026
  • L2-3Southampton24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Cardiff154652727018
9West Ham156543723+1423

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cardiff vs West Ham

  • 9 March 2019Cardiff 2–0 West HamPremier League
  • 4 December 2018West Ham 3–1 CardiffPremier League
  • 11 January 2014Cardiff 0–2 West HamPremier League
  • 24 September 2013West Ham 3–2 CardiffLeague Cup
  • 17 August 2013West Ham 2–0 CardiffPremier League
  • 7 May 2012West Ham 3–0 CardiffChampionship

The full Cardiff vs West Ham record →

Leading scorers: Cardiff and West Ham

Cardiff

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moylan103
  • Y. Salech51

West Ham

GoalsAssists

  • J. Bowen77
  • K. Mavropanos50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cardiff and West Ham drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for West Ham at 43% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jack Moylan 11' for Cardiff, Jack Moylan (penalty) 37' for Cardiff, Jack Moylan 39' for Cardiff, Divine Mukasa 58' for West Ham, Arne Engels 65' for West Ham, Maximilian Kilman 82' for West Ham. On expected goals it finished 1.18–2.64.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave West Ham a 29.5% chance to finish in the top two: 33.3% after a win, 26.7% after a draw, 25.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.7%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cardiff v West Ham has moved

First published on 21 Oct at 32% / 26% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 24% / 43%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Cardiff win33%▲ +1
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. West Ham win43%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.