Pohang Steelers vs Gamba Osaka AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Pohang Steelers 3-3 Gamba Osaka.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Pohang Steelers, 27% draw, 38% Gamba Osaka — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Gamba Osaka at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pohang Steelers vs Gamba Osaka
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21Hwang In-JaeG
- 20Park Chan-YongD
- 4Jeon Min-GwangD
- 5Jin Si-wooD
- 3Ye-Sung KimM
- 8Kim Seung-HoM
- 31K. NishiyaM
- 16Kim Dong-JinM
- 37Jung Han-MinF
- 9An Jae-JunF
- 10J. TranziskaF
- 77WandersonD
- 17Shin Kwang-HoonD
- 1Yun Pyeong-GookG
- 18Cho Sang-HyeokF
- 22K. Gwang-wonM
- 12Hwang Jae-HwanF
- 25Jorge LuizF
- 33Jo Sung-WookD
- 13Kang Min-JunD
- 22J. IchimoriG
- 28S. FujiwaraD
- 19Ginjiro IkegayaD
- 2S. FukuokaD
- 47S. NakanoD
- 78JuanpeM
- 16T. SuzukiM
- 20E. AdamsM
- 10S. KurataM
- 8R. MeshinoM
- 24T. OgashiwaF
- 17R. YamashitaF
- 35T. TonoF
- 39K. SumiM
- 37N. NakatsumiF
- 15T. KishimotoD
- 11I. JebaliF
- 1M. HigashiguchiG
- 21R. HatsuseD
- 13S. AbeM
Form going into Pohang Steelers vs Gamba Osaka
Pohang Steelers
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-3away to Kashima28 October 2026
- L0-2Johor Darul Takzim FC13 October 2026
- L1-3away to Beijing Guoan15 September 2026
Gamba Osaka
AFC Champions League Elite
- D1-1Buriram United28 October 2026
- W3-1away to Newcastle Jets13 October 2026
- W4-1Công An Nhân Dân15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pohang Steelers | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pohang Steelers vs Gamba Osaka
- 19 February 2026Gamba Osaka 2–1 Pohang SteelersAFC Champions League Two
- 12 February 2026Pohang Steelers 1–1 Gamba OsakaAFC Champions League Two
Leading scorers: Pohang Steelers and Gamba Osaka
Pohang Steelers
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Gamba Osaka
GoalsAssists
- T. Usami30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pohang Steelers and Gamba Osaka drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Gamba Osaka at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ryotaro Meshino 34' for Gamba Osaka, Wanderson Oliveira 55' for Pohang Steelers, Eli Adams 69' for Gamba Osaka, Jorge Luiz Barbosa Teixeira 77' for Pohang Steelers, Koshiro Sumi 79' for Gamba Osaka, Kim Gwang-Won 89' for Pohang Steelers. On expected goals it finished 1.66–1.54.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.