Buriram United vs Kashima AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Buriram United 0-0 Kashima.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Buriram United, 26% draw, 47% Kashima — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Kashima at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Buriram United vs Kashima
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13N. EtheridgeG
- 4R. AsadiD
- 16K. DougallD
- 40Eduardo ManchaD
- 19K. SchindlerM
- 37DarlanM
- 20Toni MoyaM
- 23G. ČaušićM
- 2S. HaiprakhonM
- 99A. TudorieF
- 7BissoliF
- 34C. BootpromG
- 55T. BunmathanD
- 31CajuD
- 33T. ChotmuangpakM
- 10Sebas MoyanoF
- 8PaulinhoM
- 54N. RattanasuwanF
- 30S. SchimmerF
- 27P. SookjitthammakulM
- 1T. HayakawaG
- 23K. TsukuiD
- 4K. ChidaD
- 35A. MotosunaD
- 28Y. OkawaD
- 32H. MatsumotoM
- 14Y. HiguchiM
- 6K. MisaoM
- 24H. HayashuM
- 30M. YoshidaF
- 34H. TokudaF
- 44Daigo HirashimaM
- 21T. YamadaG
- 55N. UedaD
- 47Eito TakakiF
- 42Rui OnukiM
- 7R. OgawaD
- 27Y. MatsumuraM
- 8Matheus BuenoM
- 9Léo CearáF
Form going into Buriram United vs Kashima
Buriram United
AFC Champions League Elite
- D1-1away to Gamba Osaka28 October 2026
- L0-1Beijing Guoan13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Johor Darul Takzim FC15 September 2026
Kashima
AFC Champions League Elite
- W3-0Pohang Steelers28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Công An Nhân Dân13 October 2026
- W7-1Newcastle Jets15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Buriram United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 2 | Kashima | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Buriram United and Kashima
Buriram United
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Kashima
GoalsAssists
- A. Čavrić40
- H. Tokuda21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Buriram United and Kashima drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Kashima at 47% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.39–1.67.
How the call on Buriram United v Kashima has moved
First published on 21 Oct at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 27% / 26% / 47%: the biggest move is Kashima's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Buriram United win27%=
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Kashima win47%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.