7 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovan Liberec Czech Liga prediction & result

Brno
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Zbrojovka Brno 0-1 Slovan Liberec.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Zbrojovka Brno, 16% draw, 13% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zbrojovka Brno at 71% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zbrojovka Brno0%Draw8%Slovan Liberec92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Filip Vedral
9'
🔁Lucky Ezehout: Antonin Vanicek
25'
29'
Fallou Faye
36'
🔁Jan Bořilout: Augustin Drakpe
Filip Vedral
40'
Amadou Dante
51'
61'
⚽Patrik Dulay
🔁Lukáš Saalout: Štěpán Langer
69'
🔁Lukas Penxaout: Oliver Velich
69'
🔁Tadeáš Vachoušekout: Bienvenue Kanakimana
69'
71'
🔁Milan Lexaout: Ghislain Vénuste Baboula
71'
🔁Lukáš Mašekout: Raimonds Krollis
71'
🔁Jan Mikulaout: Vojtěch Stránský
Patrik Čavoš
72'
83'
🔁Patrik Dulayout: Soliu Afolabi
85'
Vojtěch Stránský
🔁Patrik Čavošout: Eric Hunal
85'
90+2'
Soliu Afolabi

Match stats — Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovan Liberec

47%Possession53%
8Shots16
4On target6
2Corners6
0.68xG2.5

Goals against chances

Zbrojovka Brno0 from 0.68 xGless than the chances were worth
Slovan Liberec1 from 2.50 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zbrojovka Brno 3-4-3
  • 1A. HrdinaG
  • 39J. KlimaD
  • 3Kaka
  • 26F. Vedral
  • 6L. PenxaM
  • 8P. CavosM
  • 20L. SaalM
  • 44A. DanteM
  • 77L. EzehF
  • 15D. VasulinF
  • 14T. VachousekF
Substitutes
  • 4E. HunalD
  • 7S. LangerM
  • 9O. VelichF
  • 10A. VanicekM
  • 11M. RymarenkoF
  • 17J. ZmrhalM
  • 18D. GranecnyD
  • 19B. KanakimanaF
  • 23P. SevcikM
Coach: Martin Svedik
Slovan Liberec 3-4-2-1
  • 40T. KoubekG
  • 3J. MikulaD
  • 29L. HulkaD
  • 26J. BorilD
  • 18J. KozeluhM
  • 8L. MasopustM
  • 60F. FayeM
  • 27A. KayondoM
  • 24P. DulayF
  • 15M. LexaF
  • 9L. MasekF
Substitutes
  • 6A. BasiladzeF
  • 7A. SoliuM
  • 12V. StranskyM
  • 14A. DrakpeD
  • 16A. BuzekM
  • 17P. JulisF
  • 31D. KudelcikG
  • 33L. PeslG
  • 77D. Rus
Coach: Branislav Fodrek

Form going into Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovan Liberec

Zbrojovka Brno

  • D1-1away to Plzen1 August 2026
  • W3-1Sparta Praha25 July 2026

Slovan Liberec

  • L0-1Teplice1 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Plzen25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Zbrojovka Brno85121210+216
2Slovan Liberec8611134+919

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovan Liberec

  • 7 August 2026Zbrojovka Brno 0–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 23 April 2023Slovan Liberec 3–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
  • 30 October 2022Zbrojovka Brno 3–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 14 May 2021Slovan Liberec 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
  • 22 January 2021Zbrojovka Brno 0–3 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and Slovan Liberec

Zbrojovka Brno

  • D. Vašulín4 goals
  • A. Vaníček3 goals1 assists

Slovan Liberec

  • P. Dulay3 goals1 assists
  • L. Mašek3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.