Teplice vs Plzen Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Teplice 5-5 Plzen.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Teplice, 28% draw, 35% Plzen — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Teplice at 37% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 10 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Teplice vs Plzen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29Matouš TrmalG
- 6Michal BílekD
- 4Oskars VientiessD
- 5Jakub JakubkoD
- 25Matej RizničD
- 8Jan FortelnýM
- 23Lukáš MarečekM
- 35Matej RadostaM
- 12Marcel ČermákM
- 17John AutaM
- 10Matej PulkrabF
- 28Dalibor VečerkaD
- 3Josef ŠvandaM
- 33Tomas ZlatohlavekF
- 11Matyáš KozákF
- 31Krystof LichtenbergG
- 13Denys TaradudaD
- 14Ladislav KrejčíM
- 37Daniel MarečekM
- 16Petr KodesM
- 44Florian WiegeleG
- 98Filip PrebslD
- 40Sampson DwehD
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 14Merchas DoskiD
- 17Patrik HrošovskýM
- 36Stefan PirgićM
- 99Amar MemićM
- 19Cheick SouaréM
- 25Christophe KabongoM
- 11Matěj VydraF
- 6Lukáš ČervM
- 9Denis VišinskýM
- 37Dávid KrčíkD
- 80Prince Kwabena AduF
- 1Dominik ŤapajG
- 12Alexandr SojkaM
- 66Sebastian BoháčM
- 20Jiří PanošM
- 23Baboucarr FaalF
Form going into Teplice vs Plzen
Teplice
- W1-0away to Slovan Liberec1 August 2026
- W3-1Bohemians 190525 July 2026
Plzen
- D1-1Zbrojovka Brno1 August 2026
- L1-3Slovan Liberec25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Teplice | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Plzen | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Teplice vs Plzen
- 8 August 2026Teplice 5–5 PlzenCzech Liga
- 4 April 2026Plzen 2–2 TepliceCzech Liga
- 2 November 2025Teplice 1–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 16 February 2025Teplice 0–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 5 December 2024Plzen 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 28 April 2024Plzen 3–0 TepliceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Teplice and Plzen
Teplice
- John Auta4 goals
- M. Pulkrab3 goals1 assists
- L. Mareček3 goals1 assists
Plzen
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.