Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Mlada Boleslav, 24% draw, 46% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 59Jiří FloderG
- 13Denis DonátD
- 44Ondrej KarafiatD
- 3Martin KrálikD
- 11Matěj HybšD
- 19David KozelM
- 76Jan ZíkaM
- 20Solomon JohnM
- 28Daniel LanghamerM
- 21Martin ŠubertM
- 23Jiří KlímaF
- 17Filip ŠpatenkaF
- 9Lukáš LetenayF
- 49Josef KoláříkM
- 27Adam KadlecD
- 70Jan BuryanF
- 42Vojtěch VorelG
- 47Marek ObdržálekG
- 24Dominik MarešD
- 26Matěj ZachovalD
- 44Jakub SurovčíkG
- 3Pavel KadeřábekD
- 19Adam ŠevinskýD
- 6Tobias Kvalvagnes GuddalD
- 30Jaroslav ZelenýD
- 38Hugo SochurekM
- 28Roman MacekM
- 24Dominik HollýM
- 36Garang KuolF
- 29Matyáš VojtaF
- 17John MercadoF
- 5Santiago EnemeM
- 10Adam KarabecM
- 7Josimar AlcócerF
- 14Jonatan Braut BrunesF
- 11Matěj RynešD
- 47Krisztián HegyiG
- 25Asger SørensenD
- 15Viktor VitályosD
- 18Andy IrvingM
Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha
Mlada Boleslav
- D2-2away to Sigma Olomouc2 August 2026
- W4-2away to Artis27 July 2026
Sparta Praha
- W2-1Lyon4 August 2026
- W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
- L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mlada Boleslav | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 14 |
| 9 | Sparta Praha | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha
- 8 August 2026Mlada Boleslav 2–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 3 March 2026Mlada Boleslav 0–0 Sparta PrahaCup
- 22 November 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 27 July 2025Sparta Praha 3–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 13 April 2025Sparta Praha 2–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 10 November 2024Mlada Boleslav 2–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha
Mlada Boleslav
- M. Šubert5 goals1 assists
- S. John3 goals3 assists
Sparta Praha
- J. Alcócer4 goals1 assists
- J. Mercado3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.