7 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Ried vs Lask Linz Bundesliga prediction & result

Innviertel Arena, Ried
Referee: Harald Lechner
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Ried 2-4 Lask Linz.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Ried, 26% draw, 44% Lask Linz — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lask Linz at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Christoph Langassist: Sasa Kalajdzic
M. Despotović
14'
⚽Miguel Freckleton (OG)
32'
⚽Ante Bajicassist: Stefan Schwab
37'
39'
⚽João Victor Tornichassist: Sasa Kalajdzic
61'
🔁Christoph Langout: Moses Usor
61'
🔁Florian Fleckerout: Kasper Jorgensen
Samuel Chukwudi
67'
77'
🔁Sasa Kalajdzicout: Samuel Adeniran
77'
🔁Sascha Horvathout: Krystof Danek
🔁Moegamat Yusuf Maartout: Lukas Malicsek
81'
🔁Ante Bajicout: Joris Boguo
81'
🔁Isaac Thelinout: Evan Eghosa Aisowieren
88'
🔁J. Rhodesout: Oliver Sorg
88'
90'
⚽Moses Usorassist: Kasper Jorgensen
🔁Martin Rasnerout: Jussef Nasrawe
90'
90+2'
🔁Robert Ljubicicout: Daniel Elfadli
90+5'
⚽Krystof Danek

Match stats — Ried vs Lask Linz

48%Possession52%
11Shots18
3On target7
4Corners3
0.96xG2.56

Goals against chances

Ried2 from 0.96 xGmore than the chances were worth
Lask Linz4 from 2.56 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ried 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 18F. RossdorferD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 17P. PomerD
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 12A. BajićM
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 11J. RhodesM
  • 92I. Kiese ThelinF
Substitutes
  • 47Evan Eghosa AisowierenM
  • 29L. CapanD
  • 13H. HankičG
  • 4L. MalicsekD
  • 10J. NasraweM
  • 5D. RadonjicD
  • 9N. SissokoF
  • 7O. SorgD
  • 15J. BoguoF
Coach: M. Despotović
Lask Linz 3-4-1-2
  • 1L. JungwirthG
  • 4X. MbuyambaD
  • 43AlemãoD
  • 3M. FreckletonD
  • 29F. FleckerM
  • 6M. BogardeM
  • 30S. HorvathM
  • 25Y. DibangoM
  • 10R. LjubičićM
  • 11S. KalajdzicF
  • 27C. LangF
Substitutes
  • 9K. DaněkM
  • 33T. SchützenauerG
  • 20K. JørgensenD
  • 16A. AndradeD
  • 8M. UsorF
  • 7S. AdeniranF
  • 23Daniel ElfadliM
  • 18A. SchöpfM
  • 5A. SmakajM
Coach: D. Kühbauer

Form going into Ried vs Lask Linz

Ried

Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to SCR Altach31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Sturm Graz25 October 2026
  • W3-2Austria Vienna17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to WSG Wattens10 October 2026

Lask Linz

Bundesliga

  • W2-1WSG Wattens31 October 2026
  • L1-3Red Bull Salzburg25 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Austria Lustenau17 October 2026
  • L0-2Rapid Vienna11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Ried went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Ried scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ried conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lask Linz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lask Linz conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Ried124442122-116
3Lask Linz128133015+1525

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ried vs Lask Linz

  • 28 October 2026Lask Linz 5–4 RiedCup
  • 14 August 2026Lask Linz 4–1 RiedBundesliga
  • 18 March 2026Ried 1–2 Lask LinzCup
  • 14 February 2026Ried 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
  • 30 August 2025Lask Linz 1–3 RiedBundesliga
  • 21 March 2025Lask Linz 1–1 RiedFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Ried and Lask Linz

Ried

GoalsAssists

  • S. Schwab42
  • P. Pomer41
  • I. Kiese Thelin40

Lask Linz

GoalsAssists

  • C. Lang80
  • S. Adeniran62
  • M. Usor33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lask Linz won 4–2 at Ried. The model had made a win for Lask Linz its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Christoph Lang 3' for Lask Linz, Miguel Freckleton (own goal) 32' for Ried, Ante Bajic 37' for Ried, João Victor Tornich 39' for Lask Linz, Moses Usor 90' for Lask Linz, Krystof Danek 90+5' for Lask Linz. On expected goals it finished 0.96–2.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ried a 77.6% chance to finish in the top six: 86.9% after a win, 78.3% after a draw, 72.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.6%, 5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ried v Lask Linz has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 27% / 25% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 30% / 26% / 44%: the biggest move is Lask Linz's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Ried win30%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Lask Linz win44%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.