Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Austria Lustenau 2-1 Grazer AK.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Austria Lustenau, 25% draw, 33% Grazer AK — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Austria Lustenau at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27D. SchierlG
- 7F. GmeinerD
- 15E. ChukwuD
- 18R. VoisineD
- 3Danilo SoaresD
- 8D. KacuriM
- 11D. WeixelbraunM
- 20L. AfrifaM
- 17A. GashiM
- 24S. DiarraM
- 9L. JastremskiF
- 30P. BöhmG
- 10Alieu ConatehF
- 19S. DelayeM
- 23P. GrabherM
- 26L. IbertsbergerD
- 61H. IsmailcebiogluM
- 31M. MaakD
- 29N. PertlwieserD
- 39A. VerinacF
- 23C. StankovićG
- 37T. TrummerD
- 2D. PinesD
- 27Y. OberleitnerD
- 24C. CvetkoM
- 28AndersonM
- 8T. KochM
- 10C. LichtenbergerM
- 32L. KlassenM
- 14J. ItalianoF
- 17S. MandeyF
- 7A. SmitsF
- 26C. NichtG
- 1J. MeierhoferG
- 72Petar MarkovicD
- 9D. MadernerF
- 6L. HermeshM
- 11M. GroßeF
- 48M. GraggerD
- 21M. SollbauerD
Form going into Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK
Austria Lustenau
Bundesliga
- L1-5away to Red Bull Salzburg1 November 2026
- L1-5away to Rapid Vienna24 October 2026
- L0-4Lask Linz17 October 2026
- L3-4away to TSV Hartberg11 October 2026
Grazer AK
Bundesliga
- L0-4TSV Hartberg30 October 2026
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens24 October 2026
- L1-6away to Sturm Graz18 October 2026
- D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026
What these results say
- Austria Lustenau did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Austria Lustenau conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Austria Lustenau had three goals or more.
- Grazer AK did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Grazer AK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 11 |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK
- 8 August 2026Grazer AK 2–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 26 November 2021Grazer AK 0–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 25 July 2021Austria Lustenau 2–1 Grazer AK2. Liga
- 12 May 2021Grazer AK 2–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 11 December 2020Austria Lustenau 3–1 Grazer AK2. Liga
- 6 June 2020Grazer AK 1–1 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK
Austria Lustenau
GoalsAssists
- D. Weixelbraun61
Grazer AK
GoalsAssists
- A. Hofleitner40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Austria Lustenau beat Grazer AK 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Austria Lustenau at 42%. The goals: Jacob Italiano 9' for Grazer AK, Seydou Diarra 51' for Austria Lustenau, Dion Kacuri 90' for Austria Lustenau. Sent off: Yannick Oberleitner (Grazer AK) 63'. On expected goals it finished 1.56–0.60.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Austria Lustenau a 72.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 61.6% after a win, 76.3% after a draw, 84.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.6%, 10.4 points lower than before the match.
For Grazer AK the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 50.1% going in: 33.3% after a win, 50.6% after a draw, 61.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.6%, 11.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Austria Lustenau v Grazer AK has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 40% / 26% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 25% / 33%: the biggest move is Austria Lustenau's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Austria Lustenau win42%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Grazer AK win33%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.