TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: TSV Hartberg 3-0 SCR Altach.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% TSV Hartberg, 27% draw, 22% SCR Altach — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
TSV Hartberg at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91Á. PécsiG
- 27K. SchoppD
- 19L. SpendlhoferD
- 6Habib CoulibalyD
- 4B. MarkušM
- 16M. DalpiazM
- 95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
- 5Y. DiarraM
- 7A. GattermayerM
- 10O. LukicM
- 22M. HoffmanF
- 11J. DrewF
- 28F. GerstlM
- 23T. KainzM
- 17J. KarnerM
- 77D. KorherrF
- 21L. MarićG
- 2L. PazourekM
- 49A. RadulovićF
- 9A. UrrutiaF
- 1D. StojanovicG
- 14J. NaschbergerD
- 17L. JägerD
- 27Filip MilojevicD
- 23B. ZechD
- 37B. BöckleD
- 28Y. MassomboM
- 8M. BähreM
- 18P. GreilM
- 39R. Elongo-YomboF
- 10O. DiawaraF
- 29N. NiehoffM
- 16R. RahmaniD
- 20Erkin YalcinF
- 21Jakob BrandtnerD
- 31D. AntoschG
- 22Y. EisschillM
- 35N. HelbockF
- 11S. NakanoF
- 34A. VonbrulM
Form going into TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach
TSV Hartberg
Bundesliga
- W4-0away to Grazer AK30 October 2026
- W1-0Wolfsberger AC24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna16 October 2026
- W4-3Austria Lustenau11 October 2026
SCR Altach
Bundesliga
- D1-1Ried31 October 2026
- W2-1Austria Vienna23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg18 October 2026
- W3-0Wolfsberger AC11 October 2026
What these results say
- TSV Hartberg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- TSV Hartberg won 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for TSV Hartberg had three goals or more.
- SCR Altach scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SCR Altach conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for SCR Altach had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TSV Hartberg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach
- 22 August 2026SCR Altach 1–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 14 February 2026TSV Hartberg 0–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 25 October 2025SCR Altach 2–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 4 May 2025TSV Hartberg 2–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 19 April 2025SCR Altach 1–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 23 February 2025SCR Altach 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach
TSV Hartberg
GoalsAssists
- C. Hoffmann61
- M. Hoffman40
SCR Altach
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 3–0. The model had made a win for TSV Hartberg its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Konstantin Schopp 3' for TSV Hartberg, Marco Hoffmann 35' for TSV Hartberg, Marco Hoffmann 77' for TSV Hartberg. On expected goals it finished 1.30–0.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave TSV Hartberg a 88.5% chance to finish in the top six: 92.7% after a win, 86.4% after a draw, 80.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.7%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.
For SCR Altach the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.1% going in: 16.2% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 33.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.8%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on TSV Hartberg v SCR Altach has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is TSV Hartberg's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- TSV Hartberg win51%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- SCR Altach win22%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.