7 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE NB I prediction & result

Paks
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Paks 2-1 Zalaegerszegi TE.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Paks, 24% draw, 26% Zalaegerszegi TE — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paks at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paks96%Draw4%Zalaegerszegi TE0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Milan Pető
4'
43'
joseth peraza
43'
Bence Gundel-Takács
🔁Mark Gyetvanout: Ádám Kovácsik
45'
🔁Kevin Horvathout: József Windecker
45'
50'
Marlon Santos Teodoro
57'
🔁András Mátyás Csonkaout: Aiden Harangi
57'
🔁Emin Kujovicout: Bence Kiss
🔁Zsolt Harasztiout: János Hahn
61'
70'
⚽Fernando José Vera Garcíaassist: Bence Kiss
71'
🔁Marlon Santos Teodoroout: Moises Richards
🔁Erik Silyeout: M. Simuț
72'
73'
Aiden Harangi
80'
Bence Kiss
🔁József Windeckerout: Gergo Gyurkits
80'
81'
🔁Maxsuell Alegriaout: Arthur Henrique Marques Machado
81'
🔁Matheus Machadoout: Lucas Alfonso
milan gyorfi
82'
85'
Jose Manuel Calderon Portillo
85'
Filipe Engin Neves Çelikkaya
⚽Milan Pető
86'
János Hahn
89'
Ákos Kinyik
90+1'

Match stats — Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE

51%Possession49%
8Shots14
4On target8
6Corners2
0.7xG2.45

Goals against chances

Paks2 from 0.70 xGmore than the chances were worth
Zalaegerszegi TE1 from 2.45 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paks 5-3-2
  • 28M. GyetvánG
  • 6M. GyőrfiD
  • 24B. LenzsérD
  • 2Á. KinyikD
  • 5B. VécseiD
  • 14E. SilyeD
  • 21K. PappM
  • 19K. HorváthM
  • 10Z. HarasztiM
  • 17M. PetőF
  • 7J. SzalaiF
Substitutes
  • 15C. BelényesiD
  • 8B. BaloghM
  • 27J. GalambosF
  • 18G. GyurkitsM
  • 9J. HahnF
  • 1Á. KovácsikG
  • 4A. LapuM
  • 30J. SzabóD
  • 12G. VasD
Coach: G. Bognár
Zalaegerszegi TE 4-4-2
  • 1B. Gundel-TakácsG
  • 8A. CsonkaD
  • 4J. PerazaD
  • 3Fernando José Vera GarcíaD
  • 18CalderónD
  • 23MaxM
  • 30F. AmatoM
  • 6E. KujovićM
  • 80MarlonM
  • 9Matheus MachadoF
  • 7Danylo KrevsunF
Substitutes
  • 32L. AlfonsoF
  • 2Aiden Joshua HarangiD
  • 20M. RichardsM
  • 13T. PeñalbaD
  • 21T. MaiganaF
  • 74B. BabosF
  • 15Nicolás Elosú LarumbeM
  • 37Pietro Musto GreccoG
  • 77Arthur HenriqueF
Coach: Filipe Çelikkaya

Form going into Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE

Paks

NB I

  • L0-2away to Ferencvarosi TC1 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Vasas25 October 2026
  • L1-2Gyori ETO FC17 October 2026
  • W3-0MTK Budapest10 October 2026

Zalaegerszegi TE

NB I

  • W3-0MTK Budapest31 October 2026
  • D1-1Kisvarda FC24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Debreceni VSC18 October 2026
  • W5-1Nyiregyhaza11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Paks scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Zalaegerszegi TE scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Zalaegerszegi TE conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Zalaegerszegi TE had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Paks136252422+220
9Zalaegerszegi TE134181724-713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE

  • 3 August 2026Zalaegerszegi TE 5–2 PaksNB I
  • 14 March 2026Paks 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
  • 29 November 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–0 PaksNB I
  • 17 August 2025Paks 2–2 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
  • 22 April 2025Paks 2–1 Zalaegerszegi TEMagyar Kupa
  • 29 March 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–1 PaksNB I

Leading scorers: Paks and Zalaegerszegi TE

Paks

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pető61
  • J. Szalai61

Zalaegerszegi TE

GoalsAssists

  • Arthur Henrique30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paks beat Zalaegerszegi TE 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Paks at 50%. The goals: Milan Pető 4' for Paks, Fernando José Vera García 70' for Zalaegerszegi TE, Milan Pető 86' for Paks. Sent off: Ákos Kinyik (Paks) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 0.70–2.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paks a 25.0% chance to finish in the top three: 29.1% after a win, 21.4% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.1%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.

For Zalaegerszegi TE the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 26.7% going in: 18.2% after a win, 26.3% after a draw, 30.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.4%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.