MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved NB I prediction & result
Final score: MTK Budapest 2-2 Budapest Honved.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% MTK Budapest, 26% draw, 37% Budapest Honved — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
MTK Budapest at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24T. FadgyasG
- 2B. VarjuD
- 26V. ArmalasD
- 55S. RadićD
- 27P. KovácsD
- 6M. KataM
- 29S. SzuhodovszkiM
- 11G. JurekM
- 10I. BognárM
- 77G. KomáromiM
- 37Adam NyersF
- 22J. BalázsG
- 17K. HinoraM
- 8A. G. ZuborM
- 48M. VasM
- 13M. TimoteusD
- 30Sámuel Barnabás BakóF
- 5D. HorváthD
- 20Zalán Márk KerezsiF
- 9M. KlauszF
- 31O. HadžikićG
- 17P. PinteD
- 4A. SzabóD
- 44Á. BakiD
- 52D. BoldorD
- 3P. GarciaD
- 99I. PekárM
- 5D. CsontosM
- 40Adam SzamosiM
- 30T. SomogyiF
- 45Alberto MaríF
- 1G. DúzsG
- 11S. HangyaD
- 49B. PauljevićD
- 33O. SafronovD
- 83T. TujvelG
- 7A. ZuigeberF
- 71K. KantorF
- 19A. AlićF
- 80R. EddarrajM
Form going into MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved
MTK Budapest
NB I
- L0-3away to Zalaegerszegi TE31 October 2026
- L0-5away to Ferencvarosi TC25 October 2026
- W1-0Vasas16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Paks10 October 2026
Budapest Honved
NB I
- W1-0Kisvarda FC31 October 2026
- L0-2Debreceni VSC24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nyiregyhaza17 October 2026
- D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026
What these results say
- MTK Budapest failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- MTK Budapest failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- MTK Budapest conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Budapest Honved had two goals or fewer.
- Budapest Honved scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | MTK Budapest | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 13 |
| 8 | Budapest Honved | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved
- 1 August 2026Budapest Honved 3–3 MTK BudapestNB I
- 13 July 2024MTK Budapest 4–3 Budapest HonvedFriendlies Clubs
- 24 January 2024MTK Budapest 1–1 Budapest HonvedFriendlies Clubs
- 12 March 2022MTK Budapest 1–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 21 November 2021Budapest Honved 3–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 7 August 2021MTK Budapest 1–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
Leading scorers: MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved
MTK Budapest
GoalsAssists
- G. Jurek71
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi43
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved drew 2–2. The goals: Alberto Mari 9' for Budapest Honved, Gyorgy Komaromi (own goal) 40' for Budapest Honved, Gyorgy Komaromi 55' for MTK Budapest, Kristof Hinora 83' for MTK Budapest. On expected goals it finished 1.52–1.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave MTK Budapest a 55.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 47.3% after a win, 56.5% after a draw, 62.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 56.5%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
For Budapest Honved the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 20.8% going in: 14.1% after a win, 20.8% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 20.8%.
Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on MTK Budapest v Budapest Honved has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 41% / 25% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 37% / 26% / 37%: the biggest move is MTK Budapest's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- MTK Budapest win37%▼ −4
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Budapest Honved win37%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.