8 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC NB I prediction & result

Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Vasas 0-2 Ferencvarosi TC.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Vasas, 26% draw, 47% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ferencvarosi TC at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vasas0%Draw1%Ferencvarosi TC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Attila Osváth
Gergo Janos Palinkas
44'
🔁Gergo Janos Palinkasout: Bence Janos Petho
61'
62'
Ádám Madarász
64'
🔁Bamidele Isa Yusufout: Lenny Joseph
64'
🔁Ádám Madarászout: Matúš Bero
65'
⚽Habib Maïgaassist: Mariano Gómez
🔁C. Molnárout: B. Barkóczi
75'
🔁Márk Kovácsrétiout: P. Kovács
81'
🔁Szabolcs Mezeiout: András Radó
81'
84'
⚽Matúš Beroassist: Lenny Joseph
84'
🔁Kristoffer Zachariassenout: Jonathan Levi
84'
🔁Veljko Birmančevićout: Daniel Arzani
90'
🔁marius corbuout: Ádám Nagy

Match stats — Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC

46%Possession54%
13Shots14
6On target5
2Corners7
0.62xG1.93

Goals against chances

Vasas0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth
Ferencvarosi TC2 from 1.93 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vasas 4-2-3-1
  • 87M. EngediG
  • 22Viktor HeiD
  • 36B. BaráthD
  • 17Dániel CsókaD
  • 14Á. DoktoricsD
  • 15S. HidiM
  • 24S. MezeiM
  • 10M. KovácsrétiM
  • 88J. UrblíkM
  • 89Csaba Milán MolnárM
  • 18G. PálinkásF
Substitutes
  • 94B. CsekeM
  • 84Rajmund HorvathF
  • 57P. IyinborD
  • 4B. PávkovicsD
  • 29B. PethőF
  • 7A. RadóF
  • 6D. SztojkaM
  • 26J. UramG
  • 46B. BarkócziF
Coach: G. Erős
Ferencvarosi TC 4-2-3-1
  • 90D. DibuszG
  • 14A. OsváthD
  • 28T. RaemaekersD
  • 4M. GómezD
  • 20CaduD
  • 80H. MaïgaM
  • 72Ádám MadarászM
  • 16K. ZachariassenM
  • 17M. CorbuM
  • 7V. BirmančevićM
  • 11B. YusufF
Substitutes
  • 75L. JosephF
  • 19F. KovačevićF
  • 10J. LeviF
  • 6Á. NagyM
  • 22M. BeroM
  • 70I. PappoeM
  • 88P. RommensM
  • 1Á. VargaG
  • 68Z. VargaF
Coach: B. Borbely

Form going into Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC

Vasas

NB I

  • D2-2away to Gyori ETO FC31 October 2026
  • L0-2Paks25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to MTK Budapest16 October 2026
  • D1-1Kisvarda FC10 October 2026

Ferencvarosi TC

NB I

  • W2-0Paks1 November 2026
  • W5-0MTK Budapest25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Kisvarda FC18 October 2026
  • D1-1Debreceni VSC10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Vasas did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Vasas conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Vasas had two goals or fewer.
  • Ferencvarosi TC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Ferencvarosi TC had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Vasas134452019+116
2Ferencvarosi TC126512210+1223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC

  • 2 August 2026Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 VasasNB I
  • 22 April 2023Vasas 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 28 January 2023Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 VasasNB I
  • 31 August 2022Vasas 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 9 February 2022Vasas 0–2 Ferencvarosi TCMagyar Kupa
  • 12 May 2018Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 VasasNB I

Leading scorers: Vasas and Ferencvarosi TC

Vasas

GoalsAssists

  • J. Urblík33

Ferencvarosi TC

GoalsAssists

  • B. Yusuf41
  • K. Zachariassen41
  • M. Corbu31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ferencvarosi TC won 2–0 at Vasas. The model had made a win for Ferencvarosi TC its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Habib Maïga 65' for Ferencvarosi TC, Matúš Bero 84' for Ferencvarosi TC. On expected goals it finished 0.62–1.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasas a 16.2% chance to finish in the top three: 21.7% after a win, 16.4% after a draw, 12.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.0%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

For Ferencvarosi TC the question was the chance to win the league, 54.8% going in: 60.0% after a win, 51.8% after a draw, 48.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.0%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vasas v Ferencvarosi TC has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 27% / 26% / 47%: the biggest move is Ferencvarosi TC's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Vasas win27%▼ −7
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Ferencvarosi TC win47%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.