Debreceni VSC vs Ujpest NB I prediction & result
Final score: Debreceni VSC 3-1 Ujpest.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Debreceni VSC, 25% draw, 26% Ujpest — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Debreceni VSC at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Debreceni VSC vs Ujpest
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. AndreevG
- 4J. MejíasD
- 5B. BatikD
- 28M. HofmannD
- 3Adrián GuerreroD
- 75D. PataiM
- 6B. BoškovićM
- 19D. KocsisM
- 10B. DzsudzsákM
- 97C. DenesM
- 11Á. SzendreiF
- 39B. AdinanyF
- 25S. BaldoniF
- 99F. CiblaM
- 96J. DacostaD
- 24I. EgriF
- 12B. ErdélyiG
- 66J. JannehM
- 72R. KellerD
- 16Sergi SamperM
- 1P. SzappanosG
- 36Ferenc UjvaryD
- 3HeitorD
- 94P. StronatiD
- 20M. ZekeD
- 39G. VlijterM
- 88M. LjujićM
- 8N. SzendreiM
- 27Á. KrajcsovicsM
- 17A. MatkoF
- 14E. AmenyidoF
- 15M. MátéM
- 30João NunesD
- 21T. ScharmerM
- 26M. TijaniF
- 45A. AdemiM
- 11K. HorváthM
- 5A. FiolaD
- 32D. DombóG
- 10A. MaierM
Form going into Debreceni VSC vs Ujpest
Debreceni VSC
NB I
- W3-1away to Puskas Academy1 November 2026
- W2-0away to Budapest Honved24 October 2026
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ferencvarosi TC10 October 2026
Ujpest
NB I
- W2-1Nyiregyhaza1 November 2026
- L0-1away to Gyori ETO FC24 October 2026
- L0-1Puskas Academy17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Budapest Honved11 October 2026
What these results say
- Debreceni VSC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Debreceni VSC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Debreceni VSC won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ujpest conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Ujpest failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Ujpest had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Debreceni VSC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 22 |
| 6 | Ujpest | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Debreceni VSC vs Ujpest
- 2 August 2026Ujpest 4–2 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 16 May 2026Debreceni VSC 2–1 UjpestNB I
- 13 February 2026Ujpest 2–1 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 26 October 2025Debreceni VSC 5–2 UjpestNB I
- 13 April 2025Ujpest 2–1 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 8 December 2024Debreceni VSC 1–2 UjpestNB I
Leading scorers: Debreceni VSC and Ujpest
Debreceni VSC
GoalsAssists
- Á. Szendrei62
- B. Dzsudzsák42
- C. Denes33
Ujpest
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko63
- E. Amenyido45
- G. Vlijter32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Debreceni VSC beat Ujpest 3–1. The model had made a win for Debreceni VSC its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ákos Szendrei 39' for Debreceni VSC, Aljosa Matko 42' for Ujpest, Vilmos Csanad Denes 49' for Debreceni VSC, florian cibla 85' for Debreceni VSC. On expected goals it finished 1.92–1.09.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Debreceni VSC a 39.6% chance to finish in the top three: 45.7% after a win, 35.7% after a draw, 30.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.7%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.
For Ujpest the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 14.2% going in: 19.9% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.1%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Debreceni VSC v Ujpest has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Debreceni VSC's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Debreceni VSC win49%▲ +3
- Draw25%=
- Ujpest win26%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.