5 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sanat Naft Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Sardar Azadegan Stadium, Qazvin
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Shams Azar Qazvin 0-1 Sanat Naft.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Shams Azar Qazvin, 26% draw, 22% Sanat Naft — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shams Azar Qazvin at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shams Azar Qazvin0%Draw5%Sanat Naft95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
⚽M. Seifi
🔁A. Nasiriout: A. Hosseinzadeh
48'
🔁R. Mohammadiout: S. Moazemitabar
48'
69'
🔁M. Fakhreddiniout: M. Karimzadeh
70'
🔁E. Bocoumout: M. Abbasi
🔁A. Mohkamkarout: A. Zand
78'
78'
🔁M. Seifiout: S. Mehrabizadeh
85'
🔁T. Rikaniout: M. Ghobeishavi
🔁A. Karamiout: S. Hardani
85'
🔁A. Taherout: A. A. Chegini
85'

Line-ups

Shams Azar Qazvin
  • 49A. Zarei
  • 4M. Rezaei
  • 30A. Taher
  • 19A. Karami
  • 2M. Nejadmehdi
  • 7R. Mohammadi
  • 10A. Mohkamkar
  • 86A. Nasiri
  • 48M. Sourgi
  • 11M. Mamizadeh
  • 16M. Mansouri
Substitutes
  • 20A. Rezaei
  • 1M. Asadi
  • 8A. Hosseinzadeh
  • 12E. Moradi
  • 17M. Aghamohammadi
  • 18A. Jelokhani Niaraki
  • 23S. M. Hosseini
  • 32S. Hardani
  • 71S. Moazemitabar
Sanat Naft
  • 1A. Gohari
  • 33M. Tohidast
  • 2M. Aghajanpour
  • 34M. Fakhreddini
  • 12M. Teymouri
  • 6A. Taheran
  • 8K. Zebarjad
  • 10T. Rikani
  • 77M. Fallah
  • 7M. Seifi
  • 13E. Bocoum
Substitutes
  • M. Ghobeishavi
  • 4R. Yazdandoost
  • 9R. Rezaei
  • 21M. Abbasi
  • 22P. Afzali
  • 27M. Dindari
  • 41F. Mirdoraghi
  • 78M. Karimzadeh
  • 81E. Mohammadi

Form going into Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sanat Naft

Shams Azar Qazvin

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L0-2away to Esteghlal Khuzestan25 October 2026
  • D0-0Sepahan FC18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Paykan10 October 2026
  • L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026

Sanat Naft

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L0-3away to Tractor Sazi22 October 2026
  • W2-1Aluminium Arak17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Persepolis FC9 October 2026
  • L1-2Chadormalu SC12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Shams Azar Qazvin did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Shams Azar Qazvin conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Shams Azar Qazvin had two goals or fewer.
  • Sanat Naft conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Sanat Naft had three goals or more.
  • Sanat Naft failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Shams Azar Qazvin11146713-67
16Sanat Naft11245615-910

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sanat Naft

  • 24 May 2024Sanat Naft 2–2 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 19 December 2023Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 20 December 2021Sanat Naft 3–1 Shams Azar QazvinHazfi Cup

The result against the call

Sanat Naft won 1–0 at Shams Azar Qazvin. The model had leaned towards a win for Shams Azar Qazvin at 52% and given a win for Sanat Naft 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: M. Seifi 35' for Sanat Naft.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shams Azar Qazvin a 60.8% chance to finish in the bottom four: 36.4% after a win, 89.8% after a draw, 96.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.4%, 35.6 points higher than before the match.

For Sanat Naft the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 84.8% going in: 51.9% after a win, 82.5% after a draw, 99.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.9%, 32.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Shams Azar Qazvin v Sanat Naft has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 54% / 26% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Shams Azar Qazvin's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Shams Azar Qazvin win52%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Sanat Naft win22%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.