Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Arabi SC 2-2 Al Ahli Doha.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Al-Arabi SC, 24% draw, 28% Al Ahli Doha — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al-Arabi SC at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Jasem Al HailG
- 22K. BauobidaD
- 5SimoD
- 19Gueye LayeD
- 2Marwan HassanD
- 6O. TannaneM
- 8Ahmed FathiM
- 17J. VeretoutM
- 80I. LihadjiM
- 7Pablo SarabiaF
- 14M. OlungaF
- 4A. Al HussainD
- 44Hassan MohamadM
- 11Lotfi MadjerF
- 3Mohammed Al NaimiD
- 33Q. El HarounG
- 30Salem Al HajriM
- 90Y. SnanaF
- 9Mohamed GoudaF
- 24Yonis Yusuf AbdurisagqM
- 13Mohamed LinglizG
- 41Ahmed ReyedD
- 16R. TihiD
- 88A. AmraouiD
- 12Ghanem Al MinhaliD
- 33D. FettouhiM
- 5W. Troost-EkongM
- 27B. BourigeaudM
- 6Luiz CearáM
- 7J. DraxlerM
- 10Erik ExpósitoF
- 49Z. SassiD
- 70Younis AbdelrahmanF
- 18Jassem MohammedD
- 53Saleh Ahmed QassemG
- 20Hamad MansourM
- 11Suhaib GannanF
- 77Ismaeel MohammadM
- 15Mohammed Abdulla Al-IshaqM
- 80Mohsen AlipourM
Form going into Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha
Al-Arabi SC
Stars League
- D0-0Al-Rayyan SC31 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah24 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Shahaniya16 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al Sadd9 October 2026
Al Ahli Doha
Stars League
- W2-1away to Al Shahaniya30 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Gharafa22 October 2026
- L0-3Al Wakrah16 October 2026
- W5-0Al-Sailiya10 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Arabi SC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al-Arabi SC had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Al Ahli Doha had three goals or more.
- Al Ahli Doha scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Ahli Doha conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 14 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha
- 13 March 2026Al Ahli Doha 1–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 9 November 2025Al-Arabi SC 1–0 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 23 February 2025Al-Arabi SC 4–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 22 September 2024Al Ahli Doha 3–3 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 30 August 2024Al-Arabi SC 1–0 Al Ahli DohaQSL Cup
- 16 March 2024Al Ahli Doha 1–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
Leading scorers: Al-Arabi SC and Al Ahli Doha
Al-Arabi SC
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Sarabia60
- O. Tannane33
Al Ahli Doha
GoalsAssists
- N. Sliti32
- Erik Expósito31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Arabi SC and Al Ahli Doha drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Arabi SC at 48% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Issa Laye 43' for Al-Arabi SC, Isaac Lihadji 45+2' for Al-Arabi SC, Erik Expósito 59' for Al Ahli Doha, Erik Expósito 61' for Al Ahli Doha. On expected goals it finished 2.43–1.38.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Arabi SC a 69.6% chance to finish in the top four: 87.3% after a win, 63.7% after a draw, 39.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 63.7%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.
For Al Ahli Doha the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.4% going in: 26.3% after a win, 5.1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.1%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.