Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Gharafa 1-2 Al-Duhail SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Al-Gharafa, 24% draw, 54% Al-Duhail SC — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al-Duhail SC at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Khalifa AbabacarG
- 18Ayoub Al OuiD
- 20Jang Hyun-SooD
- 6Dame TraoréD
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
- 29F. DíazM
- 13F. SassiM
- 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragM
- 10I. BennacerM
- 8Y. BrahimiM
- 7F. ComanF
- 48Fahed Amro Abu HamdehM
- 33Chalpan AbdulnasirD
- 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiD
- 49R. FaragallaM
- 16Jamil FriarkhM
- 31A. KoneG
- 9F. MagriF
- 97A. Nasar MohamedF
- 34M. GamalG
- 1Salah ZakariaG
- 21J. CastellettoD
- 3Lucas TutaD
- 5Bassam Al RawiD
- 18Sultan Al BraikD
- 19Almoez AliM
- 24B. SoumaréM
- 23Assim MadiboM
- 7S. YansanéM
- 6M. VerrattiF
- 9K. PiątekF
- 27Abdalla Mugib GamerD
- 76Y. A. El AjamiF
- 8Mubarak Shanan HamzaF
- 36Adam Riyad FraikhM
- 37Z. El JaouniD
- 30A. DoumbouyaD
- 12Karim BoudiafM
- 22I. BambaM
- 26Fahad BakerG
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC
Al-Gharafa
Stars League
- W2-0Qatar SC30 October 2026
- D2-2Al Ahli Doha22 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Rayyan SC18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026
Al-Duhail SC
Stars League
- W3-1Al Wakrah31 October 2026
- W3-1Lusail City24 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al Sadd18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al Shamal8 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Gharafa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Gharafa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Duhail SC won every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Duhail SC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Al-Duhail SC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 2 | Al-Duhail SC | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC
- 4 April 2026Al-Duhail SC 3–2 Al-GharafaStars League
- 14 November 2025Al-Duhail SC 1–0 Al-GharafaQSL Cup
- 30 October 2025Al-Gharafa 3–1 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 23 April 2025Al-Duhail SC 0–0 Al-GharafaQatar Cup
- 29 March 2025Al-Gharafa 0–2 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 27 October 2024Al-Duhail SC 1–1 Al-GharafaStars League
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Al-Duhail SC
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- Y. Brahimi51
Al-Duhail SC
GoalsAssists
- K. Piątek33
- Almoez Ali30
- B. Soumaré30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Duhail SC won 2–1 at Al-Gharafa. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Al-Duhail SC at 54%. The goals: Florinel Coman 23' for Al-Gharafa, Krzysztof Piątek 39' for Al-Duhail SC, Boubakary Soumaré 63' for Al-Duhail SC. On expected goals it finished 0.85–0.79.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Gharafa a 5.1% chance to finish in the top four: 17.7% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
For Al-Duhail SC the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 29.8% going in: 40.9% after a win, 18.8% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.9%, 11.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.