8 November 2026, 14:15 UTC

Lusail City vs Qatar SC Stars League prediction & result

Lusail Stadium, Lusail
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Lusail City 3-2 Qatar SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Lusail City, 28% draw, 29% Qatar SC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lusail City at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lusail City97%Draw3%Qatar SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Khaled Mohammed
12'
16'
Ali Saoudi
⚽Rodrigo Machado (pen)
18'
Naif Al-Hadhrami
36'
38'
⚽Joao Pedro (pen)
40'
Pau Prim
52'
⚽Yohan Boli
🔁Mohamed Khaledout: Hamidreza Firouzi
55'
⚽Khaled Mansourassist: Hamidreza Firouzi
56'
🔁Mohamed Aiashout: Ali Karami
61'
🔁Naif Al-Hadhramiout: Saud Jjbril
67'
🔁Franco Russoout: Muhammad Taher Khan
67'
78'
🔁Yohan Boliout: Aron Gunnarsson
79'
Nasir Baksh
85'
🔁Faïz Selemaniout: Albert Luque
⚽Hamidreza Firouziassist: Saud Jjbril
86'
Amin Pilali
89'
Emanuel Mesquita
90'
90+1'
🔁Said Brahmiout: Ibrahim Abdelhalim

Match stats — Lusail City vs Qatar SC

48%Possession52%
7Shots12
5On target4
0Corners4
2.12xG1.83

Goals against chances

Lusail City3 from 2.12 xGmore than the chances were worth
Qatar SC2 from 1.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lusail City 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. ShakouriG
  • 2A. PilaliD
  • 4F. RussoD
  • 27M. AiashD
  • 66A. NematiD
  • 6O. EbrahimiM
  • 70Mohamed KhaledM
  • 20Naif Al HadhramiM
  • 8Khaled MohammedM
  • 14K. MansourM
  • 19RodrigoF
Substitutes
  • 30H. KamalD
  • 11H. FirouziF
  • 10S. JjbrilM
  • 3Ali MalolahD
  • 96Amir HassanG
  • 5A. Al KaratlyM
  • 45Muhammad Taher KhanM
Coach: Emanuel Mesquita
Qatar SC 4-4-2
  • 17A. N. MahmoudG
  • 2Nasir BakshD
  • 40S. F. DioufD
  • 4A. SaoudiD
  • 20Eisa PalangiD
  • 14Said BrahmiM
  • 6Pau PrimM
  • 24N. MasonM
  • 7F. SelemaniM
  • 11Y. BoliF
  • 9João PedroF
Substitutes
  • 28A. AddaiF
  • 74S. Al AbbasiG
  • 42Yaseen LafridD
  • 5A. GunnarssonM
  • 44A. HanfyD
  • 22A. Ramis LuqueF
  • 33Adnan SalehG
  • 23Sebastián SoriaF
  • 19Abdulrasheed UmaruF
Coach: Tintín Márquez

Form going into Lusail City vs Qatar SC

Lusail City

Stars League

  • W2-1away to Al-Sailiya31 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Al-Duhail SC24 October 2026
  • D0-0Al Shamal17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Al Shahaniya10 October 2026

Qatar SC

Stars League

  • L0-2away to Al-Gharafa30 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Al Shamal23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Al-Sailiya17 October 2026
  • L0-3Al-Rayyan SC9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Lusail City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lusail City conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Qatar SC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Qatar SC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Qatar SC had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Lusail City93331311+212
11Qatar SC91351121-106

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lusail City vs Qatar SC

  • 9 April 2022Lusail City 1–0 Qatar SCQFA Cup

Leading scorers: Lusail City and Qatar SC

Lusail City

GoalsAssists

  • Rodrigo60

Qatar SC

GoalsAssists

  • João Pedro41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lusail City beat Qatar SC 3–2. The model had made a win for Lusail City its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Rodrigo Machado (penalty) 18' for Lusail City, Joao Pedro (penalty) 38' for Qatar SC, Yohan Boli 52' for Qatar SC, Khaled Mansour 56' for Lusail City, Hamidreza Firouzi 86' for Lusail City. On expected goals it finished 2.12–1.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lusail City a 7.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 0.0% after a win, 2.1% after a draw, 24.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 7.7 points lower than before the match.

For Qatar SC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 70.2% going in: 42.2% after a win, 67.1% after a draw, 88.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.7%, 18.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.