8 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Al Sadd vs Al-Rayyan SC Stars League prediction & result

Ahmed bin Ali Stadium, Lai Yang
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Al Sadd 3-4 Al-Rayyan SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Al Sadd, 24% draw, 41% Al-Rayyan SC — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Rayyan SC at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Sadd0%Draw5%Al-Rayyan SC95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Hassan Al-Haydos
2'
10'
⚽Ahmed Alaaeldin
13'
⚽Otávioassist: Gabriel Pereira
⚽Roberto Firminoassist: Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva
21'
22'
⚽Róger Guedesassist: Gabriel Pereira
28'
⚽Ahmed Alaaeldinassist: Ahmed Al Minhali
⚽Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silvaassist: Tarek Salman
42'
45+3'
Jassem Gaber
⚽Akram Afif (pen)
45+8'
52'
Ahmed Al Minhali
Tarek Salman
54'
🔁Hassan Al-Haydosout: Mohamed Manai
58'
⚽Akram Afif
67'
68'
Ahmed Alaaeldin
🔁Mostafa Mashaalout: Yusuf Abdurisag
71'
🔁Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silvaout: Mohammed Muntari
71'
72'
🔁Ahmed Alaaeldinout: Ahmed Al-Ganehi
72'
🔁Gabriel Pereiraout: Aleksandar Mitrović
🔁Mohamed Waadout: Guilherme Torres
76'
85'
🔁Ahmed Al Minhaliout: Daouda Diakite
85'
🔁David Garcíaout: Yousef Ayman
•Boualem Khoukhi
90+3'
90+5'
🔁Jassem Gaberout: Abdulaziz Hatim
Paulo Otávio
90+8'

Match stats — Al Sadd vs Al-Rayyan SC

53%Possession47%
13Shots8
5On target6
7Corners1
1.97xG1.54

Goals against chances

Al Sadd3 from 1.97 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Rayyan SC4 from 1.54 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Sadd 4-2-3-1
  • 22Meshaal BarshamG
  • 2Pedro MiguelD
  • 5Tarek SalmanD
  • 16Boualem KhoukhiD
  • 6Paulo OtávioD
  • 14Mostafa MeshaalM
  • 7Mohammed WaadM
  • 11GiovaniM
  • 10Hassan Al HaydosM
  • 30Akram AfifM
  • 9Roberto FirminoF
Substitutes
  • 8GuilhermeM
  • 25Mohammed MuntariF
  • 26A. RomagnoliD
  • 80A. SoriaM
  • 12Y. AbdurisagF
  • 17Mohamed Al ManaiM
  • 13Abdullah Al YazidiF
  • 23Hashim AliF
  • 31Yousef Abdulla BaliadehG
Coach: R. Lucescu
Al-Rayyan SC 4-1-4-1
  • 57Mahmud AbunadaG
  • 8Jassem GaberD
  • 13André AmaroD
  • 5David GarcíaD
  • 12Ahmed Al MinhaliD
  • 31D. AmaroM
  • 11Gabriel PereiraM
  • 40GregoreM
  • 25OtávioM
  • 10Róger GuedesM
  • 30Ahmed Alaa EldinF
Substitutes
  • 15Mostafa EssamM
  • 3Hazem ShehataD
  • 22Ahmed Al GanehiF
  • 16Jassem Al SharshaniM
  • 21Ibrahim Mohammed Al-HassanM
  • 23S. BeldiG
  • 35Sami MazenG
  • 33D. DiakiteD
  • 17Youssef AymanD
Coach: Vicente Moreno

Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Rayyan SC

Al Sadd

Stars League

  • W4-1Al Shamal30 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Al Shahaniya22 October 2026
  • L2-3Al-Duhail SC18 October 2026
  • L2-3Al-Arabi SC9 October 2026

Al-Rayyan SC

Stars League

  • D0-0away to Al-Arabi SC31 October 2026
  • W6-1away to Al-Sailiya23 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Al-Gharafa18 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Qatar SC9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Al Sadd scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Al Sadd had three goals or more.
  • Al Sadd conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Rayyan SC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Al-Rayyan SC kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Al Sadd96033418+1618
1Al-Rayyan SC9630206+1421

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Rayyan SC

  • 4 April 2026Al-Rayyan SC 1–1 Al SaddStars League
  • 12 December 2025Al-Rayyan SC 5–3 Al SaddQSL Cup
  • 30 October 2025Al Sadd 5–1 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
  • 5 April 2025Al-Rayyan SC 1–2 Al SaddStars League
  • 31 October 2024Al Sadd 2–1 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
  • 28 April 2024Al-Rayyan SC 4–0 Al SaddStars League

Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Rayyan SC

Al Sadd

GoalsAssists

  • Akram Afif86
  • Roberto Firmino84
  • Giovani33

Al-Rayyan SC

GoalsAssists

  • Róger Guedes62
  • Ahmed Alaa Eldin50
  • Gabriel Pereira33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Rayyan SC won 4–3 at Al Sadd. The model had made a win for Al-Rayyan SC its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ahmed Alaaeldin 10' for Al-Rayyan SC, Otávio 13' for Al-Rayyan SC, Roberto Firmino 21' for Al Sadd, Róger Guedes 22' for Al-Rayyan SC, Ahmed Alaaeldin 28' for Al-Rayyan SC, Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva 42' for Al Sadd, Akram Afif 67' for Al Sadd. On expected goals it finished 1.97–1.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Sadd a 30.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 60.6% after a win, 26.7% after a draw, 5.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.1%, 24.9 points lower than before the match.

For Al-Rayyan SC the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 28.4% going in: 55.0% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 2.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.0%, 26.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.