7 November 2026, 14:15 UTC

Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya Stars League prediction & result

Al-Shamal SC Stadium, Gray Shamal
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Al Shamal 5-0 Al-Sailiya.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Al Shamal, 22% draw, 26% Al-Sailiya — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Shamal at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Shamal99%Draw1%Al-Sailiya0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Wesley Saïdassist: Riyad Mahrez
20'
29'
Abdulaziz Al-Bakri
•Mowafak Awad
36'
⚽Riyad Mahrez (pen)
40'
Tiago Silva
42'
Nassim Benaissa
45+4'
⚽Tiago Silvaassist: Riyad Mahrez
47'
56'
🔁Abdelaziz Mitwaliout: Ahmed Doozandeh
56'
🔁Ali Olwanout: Anwar El Ghazi
56'
🔁Abdulaziz Al-Bakriout: Mohab Mohammed Eissa
⚽Mowafak Awadassist: Wesley Saïd
61'
⚽Baghdad Bounedjahassist: Riyad Mahrez
65'
🔁Mowafak Awadout: Federico Bais
65'
🔁Riyad Mahrezout: Ali Assadalla
65'
🔁Omar Aliout: Fahad Waad
70'
🔁Baghdad Bounedjahout: Alex Collado
72'
🔁Wesley Saïdout: Abdullah Abdulsalam
78'
80'
🔁Mouz Gadelseed Abdallaout: Majed Mohammed
87'
🔁Younès Belhandaout: Mathias Normann
90'
Abdulrahman Mohamed Mohamed

Match stats — Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya

56%Possession44%
9Shots13
7On target8
3Corners6
3.25xG0.92

Goals against chances

Al Shamal5 from 3.25 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Sailiya0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Shamal 4-2-3-1
  • 95B. SeckG
  • 6Musab KhoderD
  • 37Ahmed SuhailD
  • 4Pablo MaríD
  • 2Moufak AwadD
  • 28N. BenaïssaM
  • 70Tiago SilvaM
  • 26R. MahrezM
  • 14Omar AliM
  • 22W. SaïdM
  • 11B. BounedjahF
Substitutes
  • 45Abdullah El RadyG
  • 27Ahmed SayyarM
  • 23Michel TermaniniD
  • 8Ali AsadM
  • 17Abdullah AbdulsalamM
  • 47Fahad WaadD
  • 3Abdelkarim HassanD
  • 67Saoud Al KhaterG
  • 78Ahmad Al SaeedF
Coach: David Prats
Al-Sailiya 4-4-2
  • 50Youssef SayedG
  • 14A. MitwaliD
  • 55K. van der KaapD
  • 15M. NaniD
  • 77Mouz Gadelseed AbdallaD
  • 19Abdulaziz Al BakriM
  • 20Y. BelhandaM
  • 5Abdulrahman MohamedM
  • 9Ali OlwanM
  • 13JoseluF
  • 22Andri SyahputraF
Substitutes
  • 17M. NormannM
  • 31M. Al BustamiG
  • 6Moataz BostamiM
  • 71Mus'ab Al BattatD
  • 4Majed MohammedD
  • 1B. BurkeG
  • 8Ahmed DoozandehM
  • 7Mohab Mohammed EissaM
  • 21A. El GhaziF
Coach: Mirghany Al-Zein

Form going into Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya

Al Shamal

Stars League

  • L1-4away to Al Sadd30 October 2026
  • L2-3Qatar SC23 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Lusail City17 October 2026
  • L0-4Al-Duhail SC8 October 2026

Al-Sailiya

Stars League

  • L1-2Lusail City31 October 2026
  • L1-6Al-Rayyan SC23 October 2026
  • D2-2Qatar SC17 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Al Ahli Doha10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Al Shamal did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Al Shamal conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Al Shamal had three goals or more.
  • Al-Sailiya did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Sailiya conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Al-Sailiya had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Al Shamal93331817+112
12Al-Sailiya9018933-241

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya

  • 30 January 2026Al Shamal 0–0 Al-SailiyaStars League
  • 30 August 2025Al-Sailiya 1–2 Al ShamalStars League
  • 5 February 2023Al Shamal 0–5 Al-SailiyaStars League
  • 10 August 2022Al-Sailiya 2–1 Al ShamalStars League
  • 13 April 2022Al Shamal 2–3 Al-SailiyaQFA Cup
  • 7 January 2022Al-Sailiya 0–2 Al ShamalStars League

Leading scorers: Al Shamal and Al-Sailiya

Al Shamal

GoalsAssists

  • A. Zouhzouh61

Al-Sailiya

No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Shamal beat Al-Sailiya 5–0. The model had made a win for Al Shamal its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Wesley Saïd 20' for Al Shamal, Riyad Mahrez (penalty) 40' for Al Shamal, Tiago Silva 47' for Al Shamal, Mowafak Awad 61' for Al Shamal, Baghdad Bounedjah 65' for Al Shamal. On expected goals it finished 3.25–0.92.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Shamal a 4.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: under 1% after a win, 2.6% after a draw, 15.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.